Is A Recession Imminent? Here Are The Red Flags Ag Economists Are Now Watching

    While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., some doubt the country's biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months. (Lindsey Pound )


    Recession talk has been rampant for more than two years. While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the United States, there are also concerns about economic woes around the globe. Some economists doubt the United States’ biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months.

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    USDA certified organic options guarantee a pure and natural product.

    Specially formulated CBD oils cater to the unique needs of small pets.

    Safety is prioritized with rigorous testing processes.

    High-quality veterinarian-recommended brands offer trusted options.

    Effective even in smaller doses due to tailored formulations.


    Limited availability compared to non-certified organic CBD oil products.

    Potentially higher price point due to the stringent certification process.

    In the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 60 ag economists from across the country, the economists were asked if the United States’ major importers will avoid a recession over the next 18 months. Of those who answered the question, nine said “yes,” but eight responded “no.” Four remained unsure.

    The economists were then asked to explain the reasoning behind their response. The answers revealed a host of concerns, including labor shortages, risks in China and Europe as well as the strength of the U.S. dollar, as to why the economists think a recession might be imminent for those countries.

    “The slowdown in global trade and the strength of the dollar are placing excessive pressure on importers,” said one economist in the anonymous survey.

    “Of the countries the United States exports product to, China is the only one I have large concerns about. Europe has seen an economic slowdown, but I think they will avoid a recession over the next 18 months,” said another ag economist.

    “It’s hard to imagine that much of the world won’t continue to be squeezed by too much private and government debt and rising interest rates, which ultimately ripples through all economies. The United States is the prettiest of the ugly horses,” was another response.

    Out of all the responses, the biggest concern continues to be China. While economists say pork and beef exports might be the most at risk, a ripple effect around the globe is possible.

    “The economic slowdown will result in some of our major importers entering a recession. It will remain slow recovery and growth longer term,” said one economist.

    “China appears to have some economic problems.  They have emerged as major importers of pork and beef, but they also remain a trading partner that contributes market uncertainty. On meats, traditional partners will be more important,” said another economist.

    In the United States, economists have been largely impressed by the resiliency of American consumers, but many point to red flags that continue to flash caution signs moving forward. One is the fact credit card debt is climbing at a time when inflation continues to eat away at consumers’ spending power.

    Comparing Lisdexamfetamine to Adderall

    Lisdexamfetamine and Adderall are two commonly prescribed medications for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). While they both belong to the same class of drugs known as stimulants, there are some key differences between them. Let’s take a closer look at how these medications compare in terms of their mechanisms of action and effects on the body.

    Differentiating Lisdexamfetamine and Adderall as Medications

    Lisdexamfetamine, also known by its brand name Vyvanse, is a prodrug that gets converted into dextroamphetamine in the body. On the other hand, Adderall is a combination medication that contains a mixture of amphetamine salts. Both medications work by increasing the levels of certain neurotransmitters in the brain, such as dopamine and norepinephrine, which play a role in regulating attention and impulse control.

    Comparing Mechanisms of Action and Effects on the Body

    While both Lisdexamfetamine and Adderall have similar mechanisms of action, there are some differences worth noting. Lisdexamfetamine has a longer duration of action compared to immediate-release forms of Adderall. This means that it can provide symptom relief for up to 14 hours, allowing individuals with ADHD to experience sustained focus throughout the day timesunion.

    Adderall, on the other hand, comes in immediate-release and extended-release formulations. The immediate-release form typically lasts around 4-6 hours before another dose is needed, while the extended-release form can last up to 12 hours.

    Potential Advantages or Disadvantages

    When considering alternatives to Adderall like Lisdexamfetamine, it’s important to weigh their potential advantages and disadvantages:


    Long-lasting effect: Lisdexamfetamine’s extended duration of action can be beneficial for individuals who require symptom relief throughout the day without needing multiple doses.

    Reduced potential for abuse: Lisdexamfetamine is less likely to be misused compared to immediate-release forms of Adderall, as it needs to be metabolized in the body before becoming active.


    Higher cost: Lisdexamfetamine may be more expensive than generic forms of Adderall, which could impact affordability for some individuals.

    Limited dosing flexibility: Since Lisdexamfetamine is only available in capsule form with predetermined doses, it may not offer the same level of dosing flexibility as Adderall.

    It’s important to note that individual responses to medication can vary. What works well for one person may not work as effectively for another. Therefore, consulting with a healthcare professional is crucial before making any changes or decisions regarding ADHD medication.

    “The U.S. economy has proven to be more resilient than many expected with low unemployment and moderating inflation,” said one economist.

    “It’s touch and go in the United States,” was another response.  “However, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for companies to raise prices and pass through higher input prices. That’ll likely mean margin compression, which translates to the need for layoffs. This won’t necessarily be deep, thus avoiding a recession, but there’s still some pain ahead for the economy.”

    Economists point out every recession is different, and the signs vary. So, what are economists watching to know if a recession in the United States is imminent? The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor revealed some of those signs.

    When asked to list the top three general economist indicators to gauge the likelihood of a recession, economists in the anonymous survey said:

    • “There is too much reliability in the inversion of the yield curve predicting a recession. Given the length of time the yield curve has been inverted, it is going to be difficult to not expect a recession.  It is going to be exceptionally difficult and will take longer with more interest rate hikes for the Fed to achieve a 2% inflation rate than what the market is prepared for.”
    • “I follow Fed monetary actions, interest rates and unemployment levels.”
    • “I follow unemployment rate, hourly wage rate and consumer prices.”
    • “I don’t think the Fed can get inflation down to the 2% mandate without a recession, if it holds to that mandate.”
    • “Employment growth remains fairly strong, and the U.S. unemployment rate remains historically low. As long as there is not a sizable decline in demand for labor (which is what I believe), the U.S. should at worst have a shallow and relatively short recession.”
    • “I tend to watch GDP and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index because that is a compilation of 10 leading indicator components. I watch on the inversion in the spread of long- and short-term treasuries yields, although that is also part of the LEI.“
    • “I like to look at GDP, real incomes and savings rate. Consumer debt like credit card debt is an interesting data point. I don’t do a lot of recession or general economic projections.”

    Ag economists’ view on the overall ag economy is also starting to erode. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows lower commodity prices, concerns about demand and a negative outlook for China’s economy are all contributing to the changing views, even as the cattle herd and U.S. corn and soybean crops continue to shrink. But the most influential piece of the farm economy might be the price of corn.

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