Fertilizer Trends For Fall: Is Now The Time To Buy?

    Dry fertilizer spreader. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    As farmers grow closer to applying fall fertilizer, Josh Linville, director of fertilizer at StoneX, shares a few factors to consider.

    Pricing Trends for Phosphate and Potash

    “On the potash side, I think the values we’re seeing out there are solid,” Linville says. “When we look at them versus some of the grain values out there, they’re pretty good.”

    Phosphate, however, could be a different story.

    “Potash is a great value – phosphate I’m a little nervous about,” he says.

    Linville also notes while phosphate values are up significantly, it may be a region-by-region situation.

    “There are still some retailers out there who bought product at a cheaper value and are selling at a cheaper value,” Linville says. “Their farmers are not seeing the same kind of replacement cost increase as those who might be a little surprised at how high that value is.”

    Nitrogen Market

    For anhydrous this fall, Linville is expecting a major application demand period due to its price in comparison to urea, UAN, historical values and grain.

    “Barring a wet and/or very cold, early weather pattern as we start getting into November, there should be a huge fall run on the anhydrous side,” he says. “It’s up a decent chunk from where the summer lows have been, but even where they’re at today it’s still a good buy.”

    The Takeaway

    Overall, Linville says it’s time to have those conversations with retailers and distributors instead of waiting to book.

    “I would rather have this stuff locked up,” he says. “Saying that, I like it versus where grain prices are today. We look at this from an input and output relationship so as one side moves the other perspective moves with it.”

    Hear more from Linville during his AgriTalk appearance on August 29:

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