The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower 2022/23 production based on the NASS Small Grains Summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million, leaving production only minimally higher than last year.
Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports, raised 10 million bushels to 120 million, all for Hard Red Spring. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 50 million, based on first quarter disappearance, as indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. This is the lowest first quarter total disappearance since 1983/84.
Wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72. Projected ending stocks are lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007/08.
The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
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The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks. Supplies are lowered 1.9 million tons to 1,057.7 million on reduced production for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU production although world production remains at a record.
Argentina is lowered 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million with reductions in both area harvested and yield on continued widespread dry conditions. EU production is raised 2.7 million tons to 134.8 million, mainly on higher government estimates from Poland and Germany.
Global consumption is reduced 0.9 million tons to 790.2 million on lower food, seed, and industrial use more than offsetting higher feed and residual use. World trade is lowered 0.6 million tons to 208.3 million on reduced exports by the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU exports. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons to 267.5 million mostly on a reduction for the United States.