The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower exports and higher ending stocks compared with last month. Production is virtually unchanged at 13.8 million bales, less than 1 percent lower than a month earlier.
With world trade projected lower, the export forecast is 100,000 bales lower at 12.5 million bales, while ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher. The 2022/23 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 90.0 cents per pound, 6 cents lower than last month and slightly below the final 2021/22 record-high price of 91.4 cents.
In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher. China’s historical consumption estimates are revised back to 2019/20, with the largest change in 2021/22, which is revised down 2.0 million bales. China’s projected 2022/23 consumption is 1.0 million bales lower this month, as is India’s.
Pakistan’s is 500,000 bales lower, and consumption is also lower for Turkey, Mexico, and Vietnam. World trade is projected nearly 1 million bales lower than it was in September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam. Exports are lower for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece, and Mexico, as well as the United States.
World production in 2022/23 is projected nearly 400,000 bales lower than it was a month ago, largely reflecting lower crops in Pakistan and Benin.