This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual use, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks are partially offset by higher imports.
Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Projected feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2021/22.
Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are cut 47 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $6.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 3.8 million tons to 1,459.8 million. The 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month.
Foreign corn production is reduced as declines for the EU and Serbia are partly offset by an increase for India. EU corn production is lowered reflecting reductions for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and France. India corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine and India but lowered for the United States and Serbia. For 2021/22, corn exports for Argentina are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2022 based on shipments through the month of September.
For 2022/23, corn imports are lowered for Iran, Japan, and Vietnam, but raised for the EU and United States. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting reductions for China and Ukraine. Global corn stocks, at 301.2 million tons, are down 3.3 million.