WASDE Rice: Reduced Domestic Use, Smaller Stocks

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    The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on a combination of lower beginning stocks and smaller production. Beginning stocks are lowered on the NASS Rice Stocks report, issued August 19.

    The NASS September Crop Production report reduced 2022/23 all rice production by 10.9 million cwt to 165.1 million on decreased harvested area and lower yields. The average all rice yield is down 41 pounds per acre to 7,586 pounds. This is the lowest U.S. rice production since 1993/94. Long-grain production is reduced 8.0 million cwt to 132.3 million, and combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 2.9 million cwt to 32.8 million.

    Total domestic and residual use is lowered by 4.0 million cwt to 141.0 million on the smaller crop size. All rice exports are lowered 2.0 million cwt (all long-grain) to 77.0 million as U.S. rice is expected to be increasingly uncompetitive with lower supplies.

    All rice ending stocks are decreased by 5.6 million cwt to 30.9 million, down 22 percent from last year. The season-average farm price for all rice is raised $0.60 per cwt to a record $19.40 with increases for both the long-grain and the medium- and short-grain prices.

    The 2022/23 global outlook is for lower supplies, higher consumption, reduced trade, and lower stocks. Supplies are reduced 4.4 million tons to 692.9 million primarily on lower production for China, India, and Pakistan.

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    China’s production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 147.0 million on drought conditions in southern China. India’s production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 126.5 million on continued dry conditions in the northeast region. This would be the first rice production decline for India since 2015/16. Pakistan’s production is decreased 500,000 tons to 8.4 million on expectations that August flooding reduced harvested area.

    World 2022/23 consumption is raised 0.6 million tons to a record 519.3 million on higher use for India. Global 2022/23 trade is reduced 1.1 million tons to 53.6 million on lower India exports that are partially offset by higher exports from Thailand, Vietnam, Burma, and Pakistan. India’s exports are lowered 2.0 million tons to 20.0 million as India recently imposed export duties on rough, brown, and white milled rice and a ban on exports of brokens.

    Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced by 5.0 million tons to 173.6 million, primarily on reductions for India and China.

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