U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021/22.
Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million with lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. The crush forecast is reduced 20 million bushels and the soybean export forecast is reduced 70 million bushels on lower supplies.
Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushels, down 45 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.35 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include lower peanut and higher cottonseed production.
Foreign 2022/23 oilseed production is increased 2.8 million tons to 516.3 million mainly on higher sunflowerseed and soybean production for Ukraine and higher rapeseed production for Australia. Ukraine’s sunflowerseed production is raised 1.0 million tons to 10.5 million due to favorable August rainfall. Ukraine’s soybean production is raised on higher area. Rapeseed production for Australia is raised on recent beneficial rainfall improving yield prospects.
Higher exports of sunflowerseed and rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia are in line with higher EU imports. EU soybean imports are lowered with higher supplies of other oilseeds. China soybean imports for 2022/23 are lowered 1.0 million tons to 97 million.
Global soybean ending stocks at 98.9 million tons are down 2.5 million mainly on lower U.S. and China stocks.