On Tuesday, the USDA released its Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade, a quarterly report from the Department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and Economic Research Service (ERS). Today’s update includes highlights from the report, which was coordinated by Bart Kenner, Hui Jiang, and Dylan Russell.
The Outlook stated that, “U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2023 are projected at $193.5 billion, down $2.5 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2022. This decrease is primarily driven by lower exports of cotton, beef, and sorghum that are partially offset by higher exports of soybeans and horticultural products.”
Total grain and feed exports are forecast down $1.3 billion to $46.5 billion; in addition to sorghum, wheat exports are forecast down $300 million on lower unit values. Soybean exports are forecast up $2.2 billion to a record $35.2 billion on higher prices.
The Outlook also noted that, “For FY 2022, the export estimate of a record $196.0 billion represents an increase of $5.0 billion from May’s projection, mainly due to increases in livestock, poultry, and dairy exports.”
FAS-ERS pointed out that, “Corn exports are forecast at $19.1 billion, down just $100 million from FY 2022 on slightly lower volumes. Even with expectations of larger world market supplies as a result of the Ukraine grain corridor, prices are expected to remain historically high and global demand is forecast to remain strong.
“If South America’s production and exports are realized as currently forecast for next year’s crop, competition with U.S. corn will be strong again.”
With respect to regional exports, FAS-ERS pointed that, “The export forecast for China is $36.0 billion, unchanged from the FY 2022 estimate…[and]…the export forecast for Canada is unchanged at $28.5 billion, as higher prospects for food preps and horticultural products balance out reduced dairy and beef exports.
“Exports to Mexico are also forecast to be unchanged at $28.5 billion, with higher soybean export value offsetting lower beef and cotton.”
Recall that 2021 U.S. agricultural exports totaled $177 billion, the current annual calendar year record.