Global wheat production is forecast up this month by nearly 8.0 million tons from July to a record 779.6, resulting in a slight year-over-year increase from 2021/22. While China, the world’s largest wheat producer, accounts for a portion of this growth, most of the expanded production is concentrated in the major wheat exporting countries.
Russia wheat production is forecast to rebound to a record 88.0 million tons in 2022/23 on improved yields and higher harvested area. With its larger crop and strong demand from importers, Russia is poised to export a record 42.0 million tons this year.
Demand has surged for competitively priced wheat from price-sensitive markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia while Ukrainian supplies remain constrained. Russian export quotes have fallen below primary competitors’ as the harvest of its bumper crop began in July.
Canada wheat production is expected to rebound from its 2021/22 drought-impacted crop. 2022/23 production is forecast up 62 percent to 35.0 million tons. Canadian export quotes are already relatively affordable prior to the harvest of its spring wheat crop when compared to major competitors United States and Australia.
This will allow Canada to recapture market share in its key export destinations in the Western Hemisphere and Asia, with exports forecast to rebound 74 percent to 26.0 million tons.
U.S. wheat production is also forecast to increase this year to 48.5 million tons, but still well below the 10-year production average. The spring wheat crop is forecast to rebound after last year’s drought; however, dry conditions in the winter wheat belt have limited overall year-overyear production growth.
U.S. wheat exports—forecast up 6 percent to 23.0 million tons—will all experience muted year-over-year growth due to increased competition from Canada.
Other major exporters – the European Union, Australia, Argentina, and Ukraine – will harvest smaller wheat crops in 2022/23. Despite reduced supplies, EU exports are forecast up and Australia exports are unchanged as strong global import demand continues.
