The outlook for U.S. rice in 2022/23 this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic and residual use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production that more than offsets a decrease in beginning stocks.
The initial survey-based production forecast for the 2022/23 crop year increased production from the previous forecast by 1.5 million cwt to 176.0 million, all on higher yields. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,627 pounds per acre, up 66 pounds from the prior forecast.
Long-grain production is forecast at 140.3 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production is forecast at 35.7 million. Combined medium- and short-grain production is still down 24 percent from a year earlier and is at the lowest level since 1985/86.
All rice exports for 2022/23 are unchanged, with an increase for milled rice exports offset by a decrease in rough rice. Projected all rice ending stocks are raised to 36.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month but still 12 percent lower than last year.
The 2022/23 all rice season-average farm price is increased $0.60 per cwt to a record $18.80, compared to last year’s $15.80, with increases in both long-grain and medium- and short-grain.
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The 2022/23 global outlook is for reduced supplies, fractionally higher consumption and trade, and smaller stocks. Rice supplies are lowered 4.1 million tons to 697.3 million, primarily on smaller beginning stocks for India and reduced production for Bangladesh and India. India’s production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 128.5 million as dry weather in the northeast reduced planted area.
With these declines, 2022/23 world production is forecast only slightly below the previous year’s record high. World use is forecast at a record, up slightly this month to 518.7 million tons. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 4.2 million tons to 178.5 million, mostly due to smaller stocks in India.