This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, slightly higher food, seed, and industrial use, smaller exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2021/22, where a reduction in corn used for ethanol is partially offset by greater use for glucose and dextrose.
Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection.
Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Yields in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast below a year ago. Iowa is unchanged.
Total U.S. corn use for 2022/23 is reduced 45 million bushels to 14.5 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected higher based on observed use during 2021/22. Exports for 2022/23 are cut 25 million bushels to 2.4 billion.
With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are lowered 82 million bushels to 1.4 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.65 per bushel.
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This month’s 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, larger trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with reductions for the EU and Serbia partially offset by increases for Ukraine, Malawi, Russia, and Turkey.
EU corn production is sharply lower as extreme heat and dryness cut crop prospects for Romania, Hungary, France, Italy, Spain, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Germany. Serbia is also reduced based on lower yield prospects. Corn production for Ukraine is higher as moderate to heavy late-July rainfall boost yield expectations.
Foreign barley production for 2022/23 is higher with increases for Ukraine, Australia, Russia, Turkey, and Canada that are partly offset by a reduction for the EU.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2022/23 include forecast corn export increases for Ukraine, Serbia, Zambia, and Russia. Exports are lowered for the EU and the United States. Corn imports are raised for the EU but reduced for Vietnam.
Sorghum exports are reduced for the United States, while imports are lowered for China. Barley exports are raised for Australia but lowered for the EU. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are down 4.2 million tons to 271.4 million.