The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this month is for slightly larger supplies, higher domestic use, lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are raised slightly as increased beginning stocks and imports more than offset lower production. Beginning stocks are higher on increased imports and lower exports for 2021/22.
All rice production for the 2022 crop is reduced 8.2 million cwt to 174.5 million with most of the reduction in medium- and short-grain. The NASS Acreage report showed California, the leading medium- and short-grain producing state, with the lowest rice acreage since 1958 on limited water allocations.
All rice imports are raised to a record 43.0 million cwt on reduced domestic supplies of medium- and short-grain and on the trend of higher Asian aromatic long-grain imports expected to continue. Domestic and residual use is raised to 145.0 million cwt due to record imports. All rice exports are reduced 3.0 million cwt to 79.0 million on reduced supplies of U.S. grown rice.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised to 35.5 million cwt but are still down 16 percent from last year. The season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice is raised $0.40 per cwt to a record $18.20, all on a higher California medium- and short-grain SAFP.
The 2022/23 global outlook is for lower supplies, consumption, and stocks with higher trade. Supplies are reduced 1.3 million tons to 701.4 million primarily on lower beginning stocks for India and Pakistan and reduced production from the EU and United States.
EU production is forecast at the lowest level since 1995/96 on severe drought conditions in Italy and Spain, the two largest rice producing countries in the EU. World 2022/23 consumption is reduced by 0.6 million tons to 518.6 million, still a record.
Global 2022/23 trade is raised 0.4 million tons to 54.6 million on higher exports by Pakistan and Cambodia. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced by 0.7 million tons to 182.8 million, primarily on reductions for India and Pakistan.