The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased production, which is up 44 million bushels to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields.
The first 2022 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicated a large increase from last year’s drought-reduced output at 503 million and 77 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,201 million bushels on an increase in harvested area.
The 2022/23 export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million as the recent decline in U.S. prices makes exports more competitive in international markets. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $10.50 on declines in futures and cash prices.
The 2022/23 global wheat outlook is for fewer supplies, reduced consumption, higher exports, and increased stocks. Supplies are reduced 1.1 million tons to 1,051.7 million as less production is partially offset by larger beginning stocks. Production is revised lower for the EU, Ukraine, and Argentina, which is only partially offset by upward revisions for Canada, the United States, and Russia.
EU production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 134.1 million, as ongoing dry weather lowered yield prospects primarily in Spain, Italy, and Germany. Ukraine production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 19.5 million on a reduction in harvested area, as indicated by government statistics.
Production in Canada is increased 1.0 million tons to 34.0 million on the Statistics Canada Principal Field Crop Areas survey showing higher planted area than intentions. Projected 2022/23 global trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 205.5 million as higher exports from Canada and the United States are only partially offset by lower exports from Argentina and the EU.
World consumption is lowered 1.8 million tons to 784.2 million, primarily on reduced feed and residual use in the EU and Ukraine. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are raised 0.7 million tons to 267.5 million but remain the lowest since 2016/17.