WASDE Oilseeds: Lower U.S. Soybean Production on Reduced Harvest Area

    Freshly harvest soybeans loaded in truck for transport to grain elevator. ©Debra L Ferguson

    U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 132.7 million tons, down 3.9 million from last month with reductions for soybeans, canola, peanuts, and cottonseed partly offset by an increase for sunflowerseed.

    Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 87.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 2.6 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 51.5 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2022/23 soybean supplies are reduced 125 million bushels.

    Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal export forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2.14 billion on lower U.S. supplies, increased South American supplies, and lower global imports.

    With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 230 million bushels, down 50 million from last month.

    The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.40 per bushel, down $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $390.00 per short ton, down $10.00. The soybean oil price forecast of 69.0 cents per pound is down 1 cent.

    The 2022/23 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is reduced 3.7 million tons to 643.1 million on lower soybean, rapeseed, cottonseed, and peanut production with higher sunflowerseed production partly offsetting.

    Soybean production is lowered for Canada based on the latest plantings report from Statistics Canada. European Union rapeseed production is lowered 0.4 million tons to 17.9 million based on continued dry conditions especially in France and Germany. Russian sunflowerseed production is increased 1.0 million tons to 15.5 million, mainly on higher area shown in government planting progress reports.

    The 2022/23 global soybean ending stocks are reduced slightly to 99.6 million tons as higher stocks for Argentina are more than offset by lower stocks for the United States, Brazil, and China. Notable changes for 2021/22 include reduced soybean crush and imports for China, and increased soybean production, imports, crush, and ending stocks for Argentina.

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