The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice this month is for higher beginning and ending stocks with no other changes to the 2022/23 balance sheet. The 2022/23 all rice beginning stocks are increased 1.0 million cwt to 38.5 million, due to a combination of higher imports and lower exports in 2021/22.
For 2021/22, all-rice imports are raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 35.5 million on increased shipments from Asia in the first four months of 2022 as indicated by Census data. All rice 2021/22 domestic and residual use is increased by 1.0 million cwt to 148.5 million as the increase in imports is expected to raise consumption by an equivalent amount.
All rice 2021/22 exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 84.0 million (all long-grain) on a recent extremely slow pace of sales as U.S. rice prices are increasingly uncompetitive. The 2022/23 all rice season average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $17.80 per cwt, up $1.90 from the revised 2021/22 SAFP.
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The 2022/23 global outlook is for smaller supplies, increased consumption, unchanged trade, and lower stocks. Supplies are lowered 2.0 million tons to 702.7 million, primarily on lower beginning stocks for India that were only partly offset by larger production in India and Peru.
Rice production in India for 2021/22 is raised 0.7 million tons to 129.7 million on revised estimates from the Government of India. India’s domestic consumption is raised 3.5 million tons in 2021/22 to 107.0 million on higher-than-expected use in food assistance programs.
World 2022/23 consumption is raised 0.8 million tons to a record 519.2 million, mainly on increased consumption in India.
Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are lowered 2.8 million tons to 183.4 million, down 4.6 million from the record high in 2020/21 and the second year of declining global stocks after consecutive year-after-year growth from 2006/07 through 2020/21.