The 2022/23 outlook for U.S. rice is for reduced supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. Total 2022/23 supplies are projected at 258.2 million cwt, down 4 percent from a year earlier on lower production and beginning stocks more than offsetting record imports.
All rice production is projected at 182.7 million cwt, down 5 percent from 2021/22 on reduced harvested area and yield. The projected all rice yield is 7,596 pounds per acre, down 113 pounds from last year’s record with a reduction in relatively higher-yielding California acreage, as indicated in the NASS Prospective Plantings report.
Projected all rice imports are 38.0 million cwt, up from the revised 34.5 million for 2021/22. Continued strong demand for Asian aromatic varieties and reduced domestic supplies are factors behind the increase. Domestic and residual use for 2022/23 is projected lower at 143.0 million cwt on reduced supplies. Exports are projected at 82.0 million cwt, down from the revised 85.0 million for 2021/22 with U.S. rice increasingly uncompetitive due to higher prices.
All rice 2022/23 ending stocks are projected at 33.2 million cwt, down 11 percent from last year. The 2022/23 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at a record $17.80 per cwt, up $2.10 from the 2021/22 revised SAFP. The increase for 2022/23 is primarily the result of a record long-grain SAFP and a record California medium- and short-grain SAFP.
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The global rice outlook for 2022/23 is for record production, consumption, and trade but with reduced ending stocks. Production is projected at a record 514.6 million tons, up slightly from the 2021/22 record with greater output expected from China, India, and Bangladesh, the three largest global rice producers.
World rice consumption is projected at a record 518.4 million tons, up nearly 8.0 million from 2021/22 with most of the increase coming from India and China.
Global trade is projected at 54.2 million tons, up 1.5 million from 2021/22 as higher exports are expected from several of the major Asia exporters, with India again projected as the leading global exporter and Thailand remaining a distant second.
Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are 186.3 million tons, down 3.8 million from the 2021/22 record, mostly on a reduction for China.