The 2021/22 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks.
Supplies are lower because imports are reduced 5 million bushels, all for Hard Red Spring wheat, on a slower-than-expected pace. Exports are reduced 10 million bushels, down to 800 million, on weaker than expected sales and shipments for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter.
Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels to 653 million but are still 23 percent lower than last year.
The season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.20 per bushel to $7.50 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of the marketing year (MY). Despite the recent sharp increases in futures and cash prices, a significant majority of U.S. wheat has already been marketed this MY, limiting the SAFP increase.
The 2021/22 global outlook this month is for higher production, decreased trade and consumption, and larger ending stocks. Global output is raised mainly on an increase for Australia, where an updated ABARES estimate raised production 2.3 million tons to a record 36.3 million.
World exports are lowered by 3.6 million tons to 203.1 million, as decreases for Ukraine and Russia are only partly offset by increases for Australia and India. Exports are lowered for Ukraine by 4.0 million tons to 20.0 million, as the conflict in that country is expected to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region.
Russia exports are reduced 3.0 million tons to 32.0 million as vessel transportation is expected to be constrained by the conflict and the imposition of economic sanctions.
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Partly offsetting these reductions are increases for 2021/22 Australian and Indian exports, up 2.0 and 1.5 million tons respectively to 27.5 and 8.5 million. Increased production and competitive prices are expected to boost exports in Australia to a record level. India’s robust export pace is expected to continue because of its ample stocks and rising global prices.
Imports are lowered for many countries including Turkey, Egypt, the EU, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Yemen based on reduced Black Sea wheat export availability and higher world prices.
The 2021/22 global use forecast is lowered 0.8 million tons to 787.3 million, on slight decreases in many countries, including India, that more than offset increased feed and residual forecasts for Australia and Ukraine.
Global ending stocks are raised 3.3 million tons to 281.5 million, as increased stocks in Russia and Ukraine are only partly offset by declines in Turkey, India, and the EU.