The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for stable supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports are lowered by 1.0 million cwt to 86.0 million with the decline for medium- and short-grain on the continued weak pace of sales and shipments, particularly to the Middle East.
Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks are 34.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million from last month but down 21 percent from last year. The projected 2021/22 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) is $0.20 per cwt higher at $15.90 per cwt.
The long-grain SAFP is raised $0.50 per cwt to $14.00 on expectations of elevated cash and futures prices for the remainder of the marketing year with higher projected U.S. wheat, corn, and soybean prices. However, the medium- and short-grain SAFP is reduced $0.50 per cwt to $21.60 on lower-than-expected NASS prices reported to date for California rice.
The 2021/22 global outlook is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and higher stocks. Rice supplies are raised 4.9 million tons to 701.6 million, mainly on higher production for India, which is projected at a record 129.0 million tons, up 4.0 million. This is based on the government’s Second Advanced Estimates of Production and a favorable and extended monsoon season. India’s 2020/21 production was also increased by 2.1 million tons to 124.4 million on the final government estimate.
Global 2021/22 consumption is increased 0.7 million tons to a record 511.1 million. World trade is 0.5 million tons higher at 51.3 million on greater exports by India and Thailand. India’s 2021/22 exports are forecast at 20.5 million tons, surpassing last year’s record 20.2 million.
Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 4.2 million tons to a record 190.5 million, primarily on increases for India and Thailand. India accounts for 22 percent of global stocks at 42.0 million tons.