This month’s 2021/22 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts are unchanged relative to last month. The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers is also unchanged, at 90 cents per pound.
In the world 2021/22 cotton balance sheet, ending stocks are 1.7 million bales lower than a month earlier. A 300,000-bale decrease in production accounts for some of this change, but most of the decline stems from lower beginning stocks, reflecting updated Indian consumption estimates for 2019/20 and 2020/21 to reflect Indian government sources.
Projected world 2021/22 consumption is marginally higher this month, up 111,000 bales, but with a 1-million-bale increase in the 2020/21 global estimate, March’s projected consumption growth rate is lower this month. World consumption is now expected to grow 2.1 percent from a year earlier, below the 2.8 percent rate forecast in February.
Production is projected lower as a 500,000-bale reduction in India’s crop more than offsets a 150,000-bale increase for Mexico.