DTN Grain Midday: Markets Higher with Choppy Soy Trade

    ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images

    Corn futures are 30 to 34 cents higher at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 28 to 32 cents higher; wheat futures are 59 to 75 cents higher.


    Corn futures are 30 to 34 cents higher at midday with firmer spread action again as we score fresh highs on spillover from wheat. Fresh export bookings to China to replace Ukraine origin have been confirmed by everyone but USDA so far. Ethanol margins will remain tight as we see how driving demand holds up along with turnaround on plant maintenance slowing grind in the short term.

    Weekly export sales were a bit soft at 485,100 metric tons (mt) old crop. Basis will likely remain jumpy in the short term as well. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development with an OK start so far.

    This, along with new-crop strength in soybeans, could swing acres late in the U.S. On the May contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.63 with resistance at the fresh overnight high at $7.48.


    Soybean futures are 28 to 32 cents higher at midday with choppy action well off the spike highs as we slowly carve out a range amidst the chaos. Meal is $9.00 to $10.00 higher and oil is 40 to 50 points higher. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term until futures action calms down.

    Weekly export sales were mixed at 857,000 mt of old crop, and 1.39 million of new, with meal at 95,400 old, 60,000 of new and 6,600 of oil. Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness moving forward with shipments needing to catch up more to create any pressure.

    Although, weather is showing improvement for the still developing crop areas. On the May soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $17.59 with trade well above the 20-day moving average at $16.08 as support.


    Wheat futures are 60 to 75 cents higher with expanded limits in play again. The front months are limit higher again for the winter wheats with intramonth spread action remaining extraordinarily volatile. The dollar is back near the highs as well as U.S. export competitiveness will slide in dollar terms versus places that can ship grain as Chicago outpaces MATIF gains.

    Drier weather should persist in the short term, with the second week moisture looking disappointing again. Spring wheat has weakened versus Chicago to a 18-cent discount on the May, over $3.00 tighter than the fall highs with implied Chicago trade much higher than that. KC is at a 16-cent premium at limit but likely weaker in synthetic trade.

    Weekly export sales were a bit softer at 300,000 mt old and 69,000 mt new. KC May chart support is the Upper Bollinger band at $10.23, which we blew past overnight with resistance likely in the $12.00 area.


    The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow 120 points lower. The U.S. Dollar Index is 45 points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down .60. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up 7.00.

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