This month’s outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice is for smaller supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks.
Total imports are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 30.5 million on reduced imports of medium- and short-grain rice. Medium- and short- grain imports are now forecast at 6.5 million cwt, down primarily because of the timing of Puerto Rico imports this marketing year (MY).
Exports of medium- and short grain- rice are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 23.0 million, as higher U.S. prices are expected to continue affecting sales for the remainder of the MY. Long grain exports are unchanged at 64.0 million cwt.
Projected 2021/22 all rice ending stocks are increased 0.5 million cwt to 33.5 million but still down 23 percent from last year. The season-average farm price for all rice is forecast at $15.70 per cwt, up 60 cents per cwt on higher reported cash prices through December and expectations regarding prices for the remainder of the MY.
Global 2021/22 rice supplies are increased by 0.4 million tons to 696.7 million, as higher production in Pakistan and Bangladesh more than offsets a decrease in Brazil.
Total trade in 2021/22 increases 1.0 million tons to 50.9 million, mostly on higher exports by India. In the first three months of its MY, India’s rice exports were larger than a year earlier and demand for Indian rice remains strong, including increased shipments of broken rice. India’s exports are raised 0.8 million tons to 20.0 million, slightly below last year’s record.
Exports from Pakistan are forecast 0.2 million tons higher to 4.2 million because of larger production.
World ending stocks are projected up slightly at 186.3 million, and just below last year’s record, with China holding 61 percent of global stocks.