The 2021/22 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower exports and higher ending stocks relative to last month, while production and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is lowered 250,000 bales to 14.75 million based on lagging shipments due to logistical issues.
The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 90 cents per pound, unchanged from January.
World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are 700,000 bales lower this month, largely a result of an 800,000-bale drop in production. India’s crop is reduced 500,000 bales as a slow pace for market arrivals indicates weaker than expected yields, and Tanzania’s crop is 345,000 bales lower based on updated government data on planted area.
World beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 240,000 bales higher as several years of historical revisions for Iran and Syria raise global beginning stocks and consumption slightly. Projected consumption is nearly 200,000 bales higher this month.
World trade is 120,000 bales lower as China’s imports are reduced 250,000 bales, partly offset by an increase for India’s imports. Falling U.S., Brazilian, and Indian exports are partly offset by a higher export forecast for Australia.