DTN Grain Midday: Futures Higher Ahead of Reports

    Corn stocks at an elevator location during harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Images

    Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures are 16 to 18 cents higher; wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher.


    Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday with sharply firmer spread action taking front-month action back to an inverse ahead of report release Wednesday morning. Ethanol margins continue to deteriorate in the short term with the report finally showing production slowing down by 47,000 barrels per day (bpd), with stocks falling by 1.055 million barrels, although they remain elevated.

    The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 1.498 billion bushels (bb), down slightly from last month, with South American estimates edging lower. Trade will continue to look for further sales confirmation on the daily wire with nothing so far this week, but rumors swirling about significant fresh bookings.

    Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term, especially at the processors with weather likely to allow for better movement this week. Trade will continue watching South American weather as we head into second-crop planting and development along with new-crop strength in soybeans to swing acres late in the U.S.

    On the March contract we have support at the 20-day moving average at $6.18 then the fresh high at $6.44 1/2 as resistance.


    Soybean futures are 16 to 18 cents higher at midday with trade scoring fresh highs again this morning with fresh buying, with spillover from corn and continued production concerns. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 higher and oil is 70 to 80 points higher.

    On the report, trade is looking for domestic carryout at 308 million bushels (mb), down slightly, and South American production down by 8.3 million metric tons (mmt), which would be conservative versus recent private firm guesses. Basis is expected to remain flat to weaker in the short term with the active board trade.

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    Crush margins continue to be supported by meal gains with oil action struggling at the highs as palm oil restrictions ease slightly. The daily wire remains active this week, with another 240,000 metric tons (mt) sold to China for new crop.

    Early harvest is underway in South America, likely to further crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February with mixed short-term weather with the southern growing areas looking to get the shorter end of rains in the next couple of weeks.

    On the March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $15.92, with trade well above the 20-day moving at $14.65 support.


    Wheat futures are 8 to 12 cents higher at midday with trade pushing back to the upper end of the range again, following the lead of the row crops. The dollar continues to work sideways into the lower end of the range. The report is expected to show carryout at 632 mb, up slightly from last month.

    Drier weather returns to the Southern Plains in the short term with warmer weather removing cover with weather issues more limited in the Black Sea for now. Fresh news from Ukraine and Russia remains limited on the political front. Spring wheat is firmer versus Chicago pushing the premium to $1.62 on the March, with KC at a 26-cent premium in firmer action.

    KC March chart support is the 20-day moving average at $7.89 which we are just above at midday, with further resistance the Upper Bollinger Band at $8.30.


    The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 300 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 17 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude up 1.00. Livestock trade is solidly higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 3.40.

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