The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for smaller supplies, reduced domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 100 million on a slower than expected pace for Durum and Hard Red Spring.
Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 110 million on lower implied feed and residual use in the second quarter, based on December 1 stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is unchanged at 66 million bushels, reflecting the latest estimated seed use for winter wheat plantings in the fall of 2021 reported in today’s NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report.
Exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 825 million bushels with all the reduction in Hard Red Winter. U.S. wheat sales and shipments continue to be sluggish as U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive in several markets.
Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels to 628 million but still down 26 percent from last year and the lowest level since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.15 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for prices in the remainder of the marketing year.
The 2021/22 global wheat outlook is for stable supplies, decreased consumption, reduced exports, and increased stocks. Production increases in Argentina and the EU are offset by decreased production in Brazil and Paraguay and lower beginning stocks for Russia. Argentina’s production is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 20.5 million on updated harvest results.
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Russian beginning stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons on larger end-of-season exports in 2020/21. World 2021/22 consumption is lowered 1.9 million tons to 787.5 million, primarily due to lower feed and residual use for the United States, the EU, and Ukraine. Relatively higher wheat prices compared to feed grains are expected to reduce global feed use.
Projected 2021/22 global trade is lowered 1.1 million tons to 204.4 million as reductions in exports for Russia and the United States are only partially offset by higher exports from the EU. Russia recently announced a wheat export quota of 8.0 million tons from mid-February until the end of June, which is expected to constrain their exports in the latter half of the marketing year. Russia’s exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 35.0 million while EU exports are raised 0.5 million tons to 37.5 million.
Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 280.0 million, with increases primarily for the United States, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Argentina. However, 2021/22 global ending stocks are still forecast at the lowest level since 2016/17.
