The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered, on decreased imports with a weaker-than-expected pace for Hard Red Spring (HRS). Exports are lowered 20 million bushels to 840 million on slowing export sales and shipments with equivalent reductions for Hard Red Winter and HRS.
Additionally, U.S. export prices are expected to remain elevated the rest of 2021/22, further diminishing U.S. competitiveness. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 15 million bushels to 598 million but are still 29 percent lower than last year.
The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.15 per bushel to $7.05 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021/22. This would be the highest SAFP since 2012/13.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for higher supplies, greater consumption, increased trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected rising by 4.3 million tons to 1,067.5 million, primarily on the combination of increased beginning stocks for Australia and the EU and upward production revisions for Australia, Russia, and Canada.
Australia’s production is raised 2.5 million tons to a record 34.0 million, based mainly on the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecast. Russia’s production is increased 1.0 million tons to 75.5 million, all for winter wheat on updated Ministry of Agriculture data.
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Canada’s production is raised 0.7 million tons to 21.7 million on the latest Statistics Canada forecast. Despite the increases for Russia and Canada, their respective production levels remain significantly below last year. Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 1.9 million tons to 789.4 million on higher feed and residual use more than offsetting lower food, seed, and industrial use.
Most of the feed and residual use increases are for Australia and Russia on higher production and for the EU, as more wheat feeding is expected with extended rains affecting grain quality at harvest.
Projected 2021/22 global trade is raised 2.3 million tons to a record 205.5 million on higher exports by Australia, EU, India, and Ukraine. The largest import change is for Iran, up 1.5 million tons to 7.0 million on further reductions in production and heightened import activity.
These would the largest Iranian wheat imports on record, surpassing 6.8 million tons in 2008/09. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 2.4 million tons to 278.2 million with most of the increases from Australia, Canada, and the United States. Despite upward revisions to global stocks this month, they are still at a 5-year low.