Total U.S. oilseed production for 2021/22 is forecast at 130.3 million tons, up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 are unchanged from last month.
Although soybean crush is unchanged, soybean oil production is raised on a higher extraction rate. With increased soybean oil supplies, food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil is raised, offsetting lower consumption of canola and cottonseed oils. Based on a review of EPA’s proposed rule for 2020-2022 renewable fuel obligation targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2021/22 is unchanged at 11 billion pounds.
The U.S. season-average soybean and soybean oil price forecasts for 2021/22 are unchanged at $12.10 per bushel and 65.0 cents per pound, respectively. The soybean meal price forecast is increased $5.00 to $330.00 per short ton.
The 2021/22 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is projected at 627.6 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month mainly driven by lower soybean production reported by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
China’s soybean production is down 2.6 million tons to 16.4 million on lower area. Largely offsetting China’s reduction is higher sunflower and soybean output for Russia and Ukraine based on harvest results.
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Rapeseed production is increased for Australia and lowered for Canada based on recent government reports, and India’s production is increased on a faster-than-expected planting pace.
Global crush is reduced as lower soybean crush for China more than offsets higher sunflowerseed crush for Russia and Ukraine.
Global oilseed trade for 2021/22 is projected at 196.0 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Increased rapeseed exports for Australia and increased soybean exports for Canada and Ukraine account for most of the gains.
Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 114.1 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month mainly on lower soybean stocks for China.
