The U.S. cotton 2021/22 supply and demand forecasts are largely unchanged this month, with only a slight increase in production. The U.S. production forecast is raised about 0.5 percent as higher yields in other regions offset lower yields for the Southwest.
U.S. exports, mill use, and ending stocks are unchanged from their November forecasts. Upland cotton’s projected season-average price is also unchanged from November, at 90 cents per pound, 36 percent above its year-earlier level.
Projected 2021/22 world cotton ending stocks are 1.2 million bales lower this month due to lower beginning stocks, lower production, and slightly higher consumption. Historical adjustments to Indian production over 2018-2020 reflect updated official estimates from India, resulting in a net 500,000-bale decline in 2021/22 beginning stocks there, and accounting for most of a 700,000-bale decline in global beginning stocks.
Projected world production in 2021/22 is 200,000 bales lower this month as a 1.0 million bale drop in Pakistan more than offsets gains in Benin, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Cameroon.
World cotton trade is forecast 300,000 bales higher this month as higher expected imports for Pakistan, Vietnam, and smaller markets in Central America and Southeast Asia more than offset a 250,000-bale decline for China. Exports are projected higher for Brazil and the Franc Zone.
