The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, higher domestic use, reduced exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower anticipated imports, down 10 million bushels to 115 million on a continued weak import pace.
Higher anticipated seed use for the 2022/23 crop more than offsets lower expected food use driven by a slower-than-expected pace of flour milling as reported in the quarterly NASS Flour Milling Products report. As a result, total domestic use is projected 2 million bushels higher at 1,163 million.
Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 860 million, on lower anticipated exports of Hard Red Spring and White wheat based on high domestic prices and muted export sales.
Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised slightly to 583 million bushels, up 3 million from last month’s forecast but still the lowest U.S. ending stocks since 2007/08. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $6.90 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations on cash and futures prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for reduced supplies, slightly higher consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are projected down by 1.0 million tons to 1,063.2 million based on decreases in beginning stocks and production.
World production is lowered 0.6 million tons to 775.3 million as decreases in the EU, the UK, and Uzbekistan more than offset an increase for Russia. EU production is lowered primarily due to downward revisions in France and Germany that are only partially offset by an increase in production in Romania. Russian wheat production is estimated 2.0 million tons higher to 74.5 million based on Ministry of Agriculture harvest results that lowered harvested area but increased yields for both winter and spring wheat.
World consumption is raised 0.4 million tons to 787.2 million, primarily on feed and residual changes as increases for Russia, Iran, and Turkey more than offset reductions for the EU, the UK, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
The global forecast for trade is increased 3.5 million tons to a record 203.2 million, primarily on higher exports from the EU, India, Russia, and Ukraine. Projected global ending stocks are down 1.4 million tons to 275.8 million, with Australia, the EU, and India accounting for most of the reduction.