The cotton market has traded both sides of Friday’s close but seems to be leaning a bit more to the bull side this morning. This week the market will see several reports with the potential to move prices. Those releases range from Monday’s harvest progress, Tuesday’s supply and demand (WASDE), to Friday’s weekly export sales. Also on Friday, December’s options will expire.
The Federal government will be closed on Thursday in observance of Veterans Day. Many banks will close in conjunction with the Federal Reserve’s closure. There will be no postal service, and no USDA cotton data. However, the ICE Futures will trade normal hours.
This past Friday, the CFTC issued its weekly Commitments of Traders report. The data showed managed-money funds were net buyers of roughly 1,000 contracts, increasing their net long position to 78,338 contracts. At their zeal, they were close to 97,000 contracts net long.
Tuesday at 12:00 p.m. EST, USDA will issue its monthly supply and demand update for November. Few changes are expected. Specifically, the average trade expectation for U.S. 2021/22 cotton production is 18.04 million bales versus 18.00 million in October. Domestic ending stocks are pegged at 3.16 million bales versus 3.20 million in October.
For Monday, close-in support for December cotton is 115.60 cents and 114.75 cents, while resistance stands at 118.80 cents and 119.25 cents. The estimated morning volume is 9,225 contracts.