Southwest Cotton: Nervous About Nicholas

CROP REPORTS

Paul Pilsner, Pilsner Consulting, Wharton, Texas:

“Hurricane Nicholas winds hit 70 mph or higher toward the coast. That and heavier rain could reduce yields by 30%.

“However, most of the cotton-growing area in this part of the Upper Coast wasn’t hurt. We were very lucky. We had a half to 4 inches of rain but could have gotten a lot more.

“Since we have about 50% of harvest remaining, we’ll be ready for things to dry out.”

Clyde Crumley, Crumley Agricultural Consulting, El Campo, Texas: 

“We were looking for the worst from Nicholas. But in the El Campo area, we dodged a bullet after having such bad luck with weather most of the year. We received less than 2 inches of rain in most cases and winds were not a big threat. I’m looking at blue skies right now (11 a.m. 9/14). However, things appear to have been worse down toward Wharton in Matagorda County. Winds gusted to 70 to 80 mph.

“Our harvest is normally completed by now. But we remain two to three weeks behind and harvest is about one-third completed. Yields are better than anticipated. We’re making over 2 to 2.5 bales. The highest I’ve heard is 3 bales.”

Justin Chopelas, JWC Consulting, Odem, Texas/Coastal Bend: 

“There were worries about Nicholas, but we were on the dry side of it. We got about 2 inches at the farm, and I bet they didn’t get a half-inch in Corpus. Our area is 95% harvested, and a good rain would have been welcomed after harvest was completed.

“Yields are well above what I expected. It will probably average 1,100 to 1,200 pounds. I’m continually surprised at how well these new varieties finish so strong late in the season. I’m flabbergasted. The PhytoGen varieties look fantastic — they shined. Deltapine also looks good, and the NexGen compensated well after thin stands from the start.

Jourdan Bell, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Agronomist, Amarillo: 

“Cracked bolls were seen last week after near 100-degree weather reduced the focus on the crop being late. But it’s likely too early to apply harvest aids. We need to let the cotton mature as much as possible to push for higher fiber quality.

“Irrigated fields have good boll loads, especially north of Amarillo. They need to mature as much as possible. With the hot weather, it’s difficult to balance whether to irrigate the soil profile so the crop doesn’t die prematurely or chance that irrigation will further encourage late bolls, which may not contribute to yield but could hurt quality.

“There is still good dryland cotton in the area, but there are reports that a few producers have failed-out their dryland for insurance purposes based on low boll counts. Producers were watching fields after stands were just good enough to keep them. But some have already terminated them, which is difficult for producers who have spent more on inputs.

“Many fields are clean headed into the fall, but there are also weedy fields that have gotten away from producers who were likely unable to get herbicide applied at the proper time or labeled rate. We need to maximize our application volume to ensure complete coverage.

Murilo Maeda, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Cotton Specialist, Lubbock: 

“The weather remains warm and dry, which is what many fields needed to capture heat units.  Parts of the region hadn’t had rain for three-plus weeks, so they could be hurting a little in the dryland.

“It’s hard to estimate yields with so much variability from field to field. But there is good-looking cotton, both dryland and irrigated. All things considered, if we have a good fall that allows fields to mature, I think we’ll harvest above-average yields. I’ve been pretty pleased with what I’ve seen.

“Fields look clean to finish the year. There are few weed escapes, which are expected. But considering the challenging wet weather we had, guys did a good job controlling weeds. That’s good going into 2022. As growers start planning for next year, they should get soil samples to help know what nutrients they have going into the next season.

“This year was a good example of why they need a plan B. With the poor spring planting conditions, there were opportunities to switch to another crop. If growers knew what they were working with, it was easier to switch to a different crop.

“Decisions on variety selection are always difficult. As our variety trials illustrate, there are many good varieties out there. But try not to go wall-to-wall with new varieties. If a specific variety or company’s seed selection works well for you, stick with it and experiment with new varieties on maybe 10% of your acreage. That’s usually a safe plan to follow.”

Gary Beverage, Nutrien Ag Solutions, Artesia, New Mexico/Southwest Texas: 

“It’s hard to say what yields will average, but it’s probably in the neighborhood of 3 bales-plus. There’s a chance guys will make 4.5 to 5 bales on the better ground. They should be smiling all the way to the bank.

“Of course, it all depends on how the weather treats us later this month and into October. It has been a great September, with temperatures consistently in the 90s. We need that to continue and for heavy rains to stay away.”

Randy Norton, University of Arizona Extension Cotton Specialist, Safford:

“A fair amount of cotton has been picked in the Yuma area. Yields are strong. In our variety trials, yields are close to 1,800 pounds per acre. What we see out there translates across the state. We expect an above-average yield.

“There is some late-season disease due to heavy rains in late summer. Alternaria is out there, but it should not affect the crop. There was late treatment for stink bugs. We’ve also seen leaf-footed bugs, which aren’t as common in our area.

“We’re ending the year with pigweed still in a lot of fields. Through a project supported by Cotton Inc., we’re mapping fields to determine where pigweed issues can be found. We need to get growers’ attention. Pigweed is getting out of hand — just like it has in most other parts of the Cotton Belt. We should have good data later this fall and winter.”

David Kerns, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Professor and Statewide IPM Coordinator: 

“Other than heavy thrips pressure early on, it was a not a terrible year for insects in cotton. Cool, wet springs like we had this year typically cause higher thrips pressure. Insecticide-treated seed absolutely helped hold down thrips damage. Even though there are issues with thrips resistance in other states, I was pleased with the efficacy of seed treatments in our region.

“There was a lot of diversity in insect infestations. Fleahoppers were moderate. We feel the wet weather kept fleahoppers from moving to cotton from pastures or other green areas. Then aphids came on, but they were transitory and didn’t persist in causing damage.

“Bollworms were a concern in late June and early July after a typical moth flight. But the egg lay wasn’t as high as in most years. Bollworm numbers were low after early July. Wet weather may have helped hold them down, but we don’t know why numbers were low. Under the lighter pressure, even 2-gene Bt varieties held up well.

“Our biggest problems were brown stink bugs. Many growers sprayed several times for them. A few spider mites blew up late, but were not much of a factor.”

USDA’s September production forecast pegs all nationwide cotton production at 18.5 million bales, up 7% from the previous forecast and up 27% from 2020. Yields are projected at 895 pounds per harvested acre, up 95 pounds from the previous forecast and up 48 pounds from 2020. All cotton area harvested is forecast at 9.92 million acres, down 4% from the previous forecast but up 20% from 2020.

Here’s USDA’s forecast for the Southwest Cotton coverage area:

• Texas is expected to harvest 5.26 million acres from 6.36 million planted acres. Yields are forecast at 787 pounds per acre.
• Oklahoma, 415,000 harvested acres from 485,000 planted; yield 856 pounds
• Arizona, 128,000 harvested acres from 129,000 planted; yield 1,223 pounds
• Kansas, 101,000 harvested acres from 110,000 planted; yield 1,069 pounds
• New Mexico, 40,000 harvested acres from 48,000 planted; yield 919 pounds

ALSO OF NOTE

Autauga Cotton Turn Row: Crop Conditions, Harvest Aid Considerations  

Texas Field Reports: Pecan trees showing good crop potential 

Texas Plains Cotton: Pests Quiet, Get Ready for Harvest Aids 

Thompson on Cotton: Mostly Calm with Neutral WASDE