DTN Grain Midday: Futures Heading Higher

    Corn field. Photo: K-State Research and Extension - Creative Commons

    Corn is 8 to 10 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 12 cents higher and wheat is flat to 8 cents higher.


    Corn trade is 8 to 10 cents higher at midday Tuesday with two-sided trade early on, giving way to more consistent strength with slightly weaker spread trade and post report gains being consolidated.

    Ethanol margins are likely to remain in the recent range with the choppy corn and energy action with driving demand fading a bit after the Fourth of July. Brazil will continue to evaluate the second crop as estimates drift lower, while the U.S. pushes into pollination with little immediate threat for most.

    Corn basis has remained flat with cash inverses likely to see more pressure as wheat and southern sorghum start to become available to feed.

    The WASDE report left yield unchanged on new crop at 179.5 bushels per acre, with production working higher to 15.165 billion bushels from 14.99 bb last month on increased acres while old crop edged slightly lower to 1.082 bb and new crop was 70 million bushels higher at 1.422 billion bushels, world numbers flat on old crop, and 4.3 million higher on new crop, with Brazil production adjusted less than expected on frost.

    Crop progress showed conditions up 1% to 65% good to excellent and 8% poor to very poor with silking at 26% versus 30% on average and 3% in the dough, same as average.

    On the September contract, trade has support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.17 and resistance the 20-day at $5.61, which we are about a nickel below at midday.


    Soybeans are 6 to 12 cents higher at midday with oil demand and tight supplies working to push trade higher after early flat action, along with a drier extended forecast raising concerns. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower and oil is 1.20 cents to 1.40 cents higher.

    The weather pattern is more concerning in the extended forecast again with key pod fill time still several weeks out. South America should continue to see shipping progress short term with the Brazilian real easing lower versus the dollar, with U.S. basis likely to stay stable with veg oil leading worldwide again as Canola works higher again with meal still lagging.

    The WASDE report left yield unchanged at 50.8 bpa, with old crop carryout at 135 million bushels and 155 mb of new crop, with world numbers moving 2 million metric tons higher for each crop year. Crop progress showed good to excellent unchanged at 59% and 11% poor to very poor with 46% blooming versus 40% on average, and 10% setting pods same as average.

    On the September soybean chart, support the 20-day at $13.42, which we closed above Monday, with $14.00 the next level up.


    Wheat trade is flat to 8 cents higher with spring wheat taking the lead again at midday after a volatile overnight session with conditions still sliding and harvest pressure around for the winter wheat. The dollar has faded back from the highs but remains above 92 points with strength so far this week.

    Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched with harvest estimates edging higher for most of Europe and the Black Sea areas short term.

    KC has widened back to a 26-cent discount to Chicago, with Minneapolis at a 225-cent premium in firm action. The crop progress report showed harvest past at 59% versus 65% on average for winter wheat, while spring wheat was 16% good to excellent and 55% poor to very poor with the latter up 5%, and 83% headed versus 81% on average.

    The WASDE report took carryout down 105 million bushels to 665 mb, with production at 1.746 billion vs. 1.838 bb last month. KC September on the chart has support at $5.80 on the recent low with the 20-day at $6.15 as resistance, which we are just above at midday.


    The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 30 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.30 higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $6.00.

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