All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn is 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, and wheat is 1 to 11 cents lower.
The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 40 points. The dollar index is 45 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $10.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with light selling from the high end of the range as the decline in crop conditions didn’t exceed expectations. Ethanol margins are seeing some pressure from corn rally but are stable overall with the slow recovery in driving demand continuing. Basis has remained fairly flat in recent days, with pressure likely at locations with a strong crop coming soon. Crop conditions were 2% lower to 69% good to excellent, and 10% poor to very poor, with 76% dented vs. 69% on average, and 23% dented vs. 24% on average.
The USDA announced 195,000 metric tons of corn sold to China, and 130,000 metric tons to unknown. On the September contract, trade has support at the 20-day at $3.18 which we moved above Friday with the upper Bollinger Band at $3.33 the next round up.
Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back slightly with flat conditions on the weekly report, and a dry short term forecast for most. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points higher. The USDA announced 130,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown. The ral remains in the tighter recent range vs. the dollar with trade looking to see if the rally slows fresh export bookings. Weather wise, traders are looking for one more good rain during podfill to get the crop to its potential.
Soybean basis has found spots of support at crushers as well. On the weekly report, conditions were down 2 percentage points to 72% and 7% poor to very poor, with 96% blooming vs. 94% on average, and 84% podding vs. 79% on average. The September chart now has resistance at the $9.15 fresh high scored today with support the 20-day at $8.87.
Wheat trade is 1 to 11 cents lower at midday with trade looking to consolidate recent gains along with spillover from the row crops and failing so far. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well with more Middle East tenders being scheduled into fall with Black Sea origin still firmly in control. Kansas City is at a 78-cent discount to Chicago with spreads widening back from the narrowest action in a month, while Minneapolis is back to a 2 cent discount with a sharp move this a.m.
Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat harvest 92% complete vs. 96% on average, with spring wheat conditions up 1 percentage point to 70% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, with 30% harvested vs. 43% on average. Kansas City September chart support is the 20-day at $4.31 we moved back above Monday and faded below this a.m., with the recent high at $4.59 the next round of resistance.