WASDE Oilseeds: Higher Soybean Crush, Exports, Lower Ending Stocks

    Soybean harvest. ©Debra L Ferguson

    The 2020/21 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2019/20. The soybean crop is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. Despite lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected up 5 percent from 2019/20 to 4.720 billion bushels.

    Total U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is forecast at 123.2 million tons, up 16.1 million from 2019/20 mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for sunflowerseed, peanuts, and cottonseed. Canola production is forecast lower on a reduced yield.

    The U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is projected at 2.130 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2019/20 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance partly offset by lower soybean meal exports. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.050 billion bushels, up 375 million from the revised forecast for 2019/20.

    With higher global soybean import demand for 2020/21 led by expected gains for China, U.S. export share is expected to rise to 34 percent from the 2019/20 record low of 30 percent. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 405 million bushels, down 175 million from the revised 2019/20 forecast.

    The 2020/21 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.20 per bushel, down 30 cents from 2019/20. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $10.00 from 2019/20. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents from 2019/20.

    The global oilseed outlook for 2020/21 includes larger supplies with lower beginning stocks offset by record production; however, ending stocks are expected to decline modestly with rising use. Global oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at a record 605.9 million tons, up 30.7 million from 2019/20 mainly on higher soybean production.

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    Global soybean production is forecast up 26.6 million tons to 362.8 million, with Brazil’s crop rising 7.0 million tons to 131.0 million, Argentina’s crop is up 2.5 million tons to 53.5 million, and U.S. production rising from last year’s decline. Partly offsetting are smaller soybean crops projected for China and Ukraine.

    Global production of high-oil content seeds is projected up 3 percent from 2019/20 on increased canola production for Canada, Australia, and Ukraine, and higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina and Ukraine. Partly offsetting is lower sunflowerseed production for Turkey.

    Global protein meal consumption outside of China is projected to increase 2 percent in 2020/21, down from the prior 5-year average of 3 percent due to the slowing global economy. Protein meal consumption in China at 6 percent is stronger than the prior few years, however, as China recovers from the August 2018 outbreak of African Swine Fever.

    With higher protein meal demand, soybean exports are expected to increase 8.0 million tons to 161.9 million. China accounts for most of the increase in shipments with imports rising 4 million tons to 96 million.

    Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 98.4 million tons, down 1.9 million from 2019/20. Lower year-over-year U.S. stocks offset higher stocks in China, Brazil, and Argentina.

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