Feed Outlook: Lower Yield Forecast Reduces Crop Size

    Corn harvest. Photo: Texas A&M AgriLife

    A 1.3-bushel-per-acre reduction in the projected corn yield results in a 102-million-bushel cut in the U.S. corn crop. Harvested area is unchanged at 82.0 million acres. At 13,799 million bushels, the crop is the smallest since 2015. Higher carryin partly offsets the smaller crop for a 17-million-bushel reduction in total supplies to 16,295 million bushels.

    For 2018/19, corn for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels and exports are lowered 40 million. Corn for ethanol for 2019/20 is lowered 25 million bushels, reflecting observed use during 2018/19. Resulting disappearance is lowered 90 million and 25 million bushels for 2018/19 and 2019/20, respectively. Ending stocks for 2019/20 are up 9 million bushels. The season-average price received by farmers is unchanged.

    Projections for U.S. corn exports in the 2019/20 October-September international trade year are unchanged, although exports are reduced for 2018/19, reflecting a slowdown in sales and an acceleration of exports by South America.

    Domestic Outlook

    2019/20 Crop Projected 102 Million Bushels Lower This Month

    The national corn yield is forecast at 168.2 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels from last month based on the first USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) objective yield survey of the corn crop combined with the second agricultural yield survey as well as satellite imagery.

    If realized, this will result in a crop of 13,799 million bushels, 102 million below last month’s projection. Combining this amount with an 85-million-bushel increase in beginning stocks puts total supply at 16,295 million bushels, 291 million below last year’s estimate. Feed and residual use and exports are unchanged from last month’s forecast.

    Grain Consuming Animal Units Raised

    Grain consuming animal units (GCAU) for 2019/20 are projected at 102.6 million, up less than 0.4 million from last month’s projection of 102.2 million. Increases to beef cattle, layers, and broilers drive this month’s increase.

    Feed and Residual Use: Four Feed Grains and Wheat

    Feed and residual use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) and wheat on a September-August marketing year basis for 2019/20 is projected at 141.0 million tons, unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2018/19, feed and residual is lowered by 1 million ton to a projection of 144.5 million tons on lower oat feed and residual.

    Corn for Ethanol Cut for Current Crop and Out Year

    Projected corn use for fuel ethanol in 2018/19 is lowered 50 million bushels this month to 5,375 million based on observed data to date. The NASS Grain Crushings and Co-Product Production report indicates a small decline in corn used for fuel ethanol in July, which puts the September-July total 200 million bushels, or 4 percent, behind 2017/18.

    Energy Information Administration weekly data for August indicate ethanol production of roughly 1,340 million gallons, bringing total projected use to 5,375 million. Stocks of ethanol ended August at nearly 1 billion gallons.

    For 2019/20, corn for ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels to 5,450 million, based on observed use during 2018/19.

    Corn used for seed in 2018/19 was lowered this month as NASS’s Crop Production report indicated plant populations for the objective yield region at a level below expectations. As a result, corn for seed was lowered 1.4 million bushels to 29.4 million, with an offsetting increase to estimated cereal use.

    There were no other changes in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) categories this month. Total 2019/20 use is projected at 14,105 million bushels, 25 million below last month’s forecast. The resulting carryout is 2,190 million bushels, up 9 million.

    The projected season-average corn price received by farmers for 2019/20 is $3.60 per bushel, unchanged from last month’s forecast. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2019/20 is projected at 15.5, an increase of 0.1 over last month’s projection.

    Sorghum 2018/19 Exports Higher, 2019/20 Supply Down

    U.S. sorghum exports in 2018/19 are revised up by 5.0 million bushels from last month’s estimates based on trade data to date. This reduced the ending stocks for the year by 5.0 million bushels, with no other supply or use changes. The projected season-average price for 2018/19 is refined to $3.25 per bushel, up $0.05 from prior estimates.

    The reduction in 2018/19 ending stocks leads to beginning stocks in 2019/20 also being reduced by the same 5.0 million bushels to 54.9 million. Further reductions in supply in 2019/20 are driven by a small 0.050-million-acre reduction in expected harvested area by NASS being partially offset by a 0.4-bushel-per-acre increase in the yield forecast.

    Area harvested is now forecast at 4.7 million acres, with a yield of 74.3 bushels per acre. These changes result in a total reduction of 7.2 million bushels to supply in 2019/20. No use changes are anticipated, so ending stocks are projected lower to 46.5 million, down 7.2 million bushels.

    2019/20: Oat Imports Fall With Less Feed Use for the Year

    Oats imports in 2019/20 are projected down 10.0 million bushels over last month’s estimate to 100.0 million, based on trade data to date. This reduction in supply leads to a reduction in projected feed and residual use at 80.0 million bushels, resulting in projected ending stocks being unchanged month over month.

    Anticipated season-average price is also shifted up by $0.05 per bushel to $2.95 per bushel for 2019/20, based on observed prices through July.

    Full report.

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