Crop prices were mixed Wednesday with corn and wheat higher, soybeans lower. Representatives from the U.S. and China are scheduled to meet Thursday in preparation for next month’s trade talks and may offer a hint of what to expect.
The mixed trade at midday has corn near the daily highs, beans near the lows.
Corn is near the daily highs at midday up 2 to 3 cents, which has us up around a nickel from the overnight lows. Weather remains a short-term non-issue with warm conditions and some wet weather in areas to move along late crop development and maturity before trending drier towards October.
Corn basis is expected to continue to see pressure with harvest underway in more areas. Ethanol margins have improved but remain soft with the weekly report expected to show steady to lower production and stocks.
On the December contract, support is at the 20-day at 3.65 with the upper Bollinger Band above trade at 3.77.
Soybean trade is 5 to 6 lower at midday in slow trade with futures near the daily lows nearly a dime off the high. Meal is $2.50 lower with bean oil slightly higher. Crush margins remain good, but the bull argument needs a positive export story.
A positive export story obviously needs China coming forward. Economically U.S. export competitiveness is improving, which may be just as important as trade negotiations to get some business done. Bean basis remains flat in the interior. South American currencies remain weak as planting season draws closer with dry weather to start.
On the November chart we near support at the 100-day at $8.86 and the upper Bollinger band at 8.98, and the 200-day at 9.15 as resistance.
Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher with trade at midday back to the upper part of our weekly range. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is more than 80 cents. The corn/HRW spread is hanging around the 35-40-cent area.
So Kansas City wheat is competitive on the world market but we need to see the business and more buyers to move the board out away from our lows with feed competitiveness still in place for the Southern Plains.
The December Kansas City chart support is at the 20-day at $3.99 1/2, with resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at 4.13.