The outlook for 2019/20 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on a combination of lower beginning stocks and smaller production. The first survey-based forecast for the 2019/20 crop year lowered all rice U.S. production by 3.3 million cwt to 205.4 million with all of the reduction on a lower yield forecast.
Long-grain production is reduced 3.0 million cwt, while combined medium- and short-grain is lowered 0.3 million. The all rice yield forecast is lowered 121 pounds per acre from the previous forecast to 7,577 pounds. Rice yields in all states are unchanged or below last year with the exception of California.
All rice domestic and residual use is reduced 1.0 million cwt to 137.0 million on the lower production while exports are unchanged at 101.0 million. Projected 2019/20 all rice ending stocks are lowered 3.3 million cwt to 47.2 million, down 7 percent from last year’s revised 50.6 million.
The projected 2019/20 all rice season-average farm price is raised by $0.40 per cwt to $12.20 with increases for both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain prices.
Global 2019/20 rice supplies are raised by 0.4 million tons to 669.2 million on a combination of higher beginning stocks and increased production. Global production is higher as increases for Iraq and Vietnam more than offset reductions for Thailand, the United States, and the EU. Worsening drought conditions in Thailand are expected to reduce rice production by 0.4 million tons to 20.5 million.
World 2019/20 consumption is lowered to 494.5 million tons, mainly on reduced expected use in China for rice feeding and less availability of rice from domestic auctions of stocks. Global 2019/20 trade is lowered 0.3 million tons to 46.6 million, largely on reduced exports by Thailand as its exports are expected to be less competitive compared to other Asian suppliers.
Projected world ending stocks are up 2.0 million tons to a record 174.7 million with China accounting for virtually all of the increase. China now comprises 68 percent of 2019/20 global rice stocks.
