One trading day after USDA increased its corn planting estimate to 91.7 million acres, corn, soybeans and all three wheats closed lower, also pressured by better crop weather in the forecast. The September U.S. dollar traded higher Monday on news the U.S. and China will hold off on further tariffs and talk trade again.
Midday: Heavy selling across the board at midday.
Corn trade is 8 to 10 cents lower after early support gave way to a test of the gap area on the December chart. Trade will continue to digest the report from Friday with the expected resurvey of acres along with yield projections coming up soon with the WASDE report next week. The USDA pegged the June planting intentions at 91.7 million acres versus 87.03 expected.
The June 1 Quarterly Stocks were at 5.2 billion bushels versus 5.3 billion expected and 5.3 billion a year ago. Ethanol margins get a boost from the pullback, especially with the stronger energy complex. The weekly export inspections were poor at 272,513 metric tons.
The weekly crop progress report is expected to show steady to slightly better conditions with maturity still well behind normal. On the September nearby chart support is at the $4.13 low printed this a.m., then the $4.09 50-day. Resistance is at the 20-day at $4.41
Soybean trade is 9 to 13 cents lower after gapping a dime higher then pulling back as trade still tries to balance reduced acres with the large carryout out along with a truce in trade war escalation over the weekend. Meal is 6.50 to 7.50 lower, and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. On the report, acres were 80.0 million vs. 84.335 million expected, and stocks were 1.79 billion vs. 1.86 billion expected.
Crush margins remain solidly positive overall, with meal weakness continuing. World export demand remains slow, with the ral remaining near the upper end of the range but still cheap vs. the dollar. Late-soybean planting will be wrapping up. The weekly export inspections remain soft at 719,299 metric tons.
Weekly crop progress should show planting near as complete as its going to be with maturity well behind normal and steady to slightly better conditions. The September chart support is the 50-day at 8.75, and resistance the 100-day at 9.03.
Wheat trade is 7 to 19 cents lower with winter wheat harvest hitting full stride and creating harvest pressure with spillover from corn weakness. The report showed all wheat acres at 45.6 million vs. 45.65 million expected, and stocks at 1.072 billion vs. 1.10 billion expected. The Kansas City/Chicago spread has continued to widen during the day session.
The warmer weather should get combines moving more in the short term with above 90 degrees expected for the Plains, along with heat in continental Europe. The dollar is above 96 on the index with the slide arrested for now. Wheat will still work into cattle rations in the Southern Plains short term. Weekly export inspections were good at 609,037 metric tons.
Weekly crop progress should show harvest closing in on 1/3 done for winter wheat with steady conditions, with spring wheat conditions steady and maturity lagging. On the September Kansas City chart, support is the fresh low at $4.41, with resistance the 50-day at 4.48.