December corn closed down 3 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 6 cents, both trading lower volume Thursday ahead of Friday morning’s Acreage and June 1 Grain Stocks reports from USDA. European wheat ended slightly lower and U.S. wheat prices were mixed.
Midday: Trade is broadly weaker at midday.
Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday as we try to consolidate at the lower end of the range ahead of first notice day for the July this evening. The forecast looks to trend towards warmer and drier into July with many areas still seeing active showers. Ethanol margins have been squeezed with flat to lower ethanol futures, while corn and unleaded remain elevated.
Corn basis remains on a firmer trend, especially for the eastern belt. Looking ahead to the report on Friday expectations are for 86.62 million acres of corn on a range of 82 million to 89.8 million vs, 92.79 million in March, with stocks at 5.35 billion on a range of 5.174 to 5.90 billion, with full prevent plant not expected to be incorporated until August. Weekly export sales remain poor at 294,000 metric tons of old crop, and 110,000 of new.
On the July nearby chart support is the 20-day at $4.35, after we fell below the 10-day at $4.47.
Soybean trade is 2 to 4 cents lower with trade chopping along ahead of first notice day for the July contract. Meal is 0.50 to 1.50 lower with oil narrowly mixed. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall sideways action so far this week. World export demand remains slow, with the real remaining near the upper end of the range but still cheap vs. the dollar. Late-soybean planting will go for a few more days.
The report is expected to show soybean acres as 84.35 million on a range of 81 million to 86.5 million. Stocks are expected to be 1.861 billion bushels on a range of 1.7 billion to 1.962 billion. Weekly export sales were soft again at 168,200 metric tons of old crop, 319,600 of new crop, 28,700 of old meal, 41,100 of new meal, and 19,200 of oil.
The July chart support is the 100-day at $8.92 which we are testing at midday with the 20-day at 8.87 below that with the 200-day above the market at 9.07 which we failed to hold.
Wheat trade is flat to 5 cents lower at with harvest for winter wheat expected to expand more towards the weekend with delays still in place short term helping to firm the Chicago contract ahead of first notice day. The Kansas City/Chicago spread has widened to new records again this a.m at 78 cents.
The warmer weather should get combines moving more in the short term with above 90 degrees expected for the Plains. The dollar is below 96 on the index with the slide arrested for now. Black Sea area weather remains mixed but overall good progress is being made. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front with wheat firming relative to corn this week.
On the report, wheat acres are expected to be 45.65 million acres on a range of 44.5 million to 46.10 million, and stocks at 1.10 billion with a range of 1.077 billion vs. 1.16 billion bushels. Weekly export sales were good at 612,000 metric tons.
On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 10-day and 20-day at $4.63-4.64 with more support at the lower Bollinger Band at 4.43, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $4.83.