DTN Grain Midday: Trade Trending Lower

    ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    Trade is softer across the board at midday.


    Corn trade is 1 to 3 cents lower at midday with mixed action since overnight; traders note little fresh news. The forecast looks to trend towards warmer and drier into July with near term 1-4 inch rains lingering in many areas.

    Ethanol margins remain tight with blender margins getting a boost from the surge in crude values while ethanol futures have edged lower this AM. The trade continues to debate acreage losses and the yield effects of the late wet planting conditions that will keep uncertainty in this market for the growing season.

    Corn basis remains on a firmer trend, especially for the Eastern Belt. On the July nearby chart support is the 10-day at $4.41 1/2, with the 20-day at $4.31 below there. Resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $4.60.


    Soybean trade is 7 to 10 cents lower with trade chopping lower as we start to move into more of a short-term range. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower, and oil is flat to 10 points lower. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with oil leading again today. World export demand remains slow, and the South American currencies cheap but firming vs. the dollar after the Fed statement.

    Field work will likely be slowed again in many areas with more insurance days passing for soybeans before potentially more open weather at the end of the month with trade trying to hold on to acres with November near the contract highs with changes to haying regulations on cover crops helping to finish planting.

    The July chart support is the 200-day at $9.07, with next support the 100-day at $8.97, then the recent high at $9.21 as resistance.


    Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents lower in choppy overnight trade ahead of another harvest weekend. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is in the process of scoring new highs again. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the winter wheat belt while harvest should build elsewhere, with heat expected to help push things along to the west with harvest spreading into south-central Kansas with north of I-70 not expected until the end of next week.

    The dollar is testing 96 on the index with the sharp pullback after the Fed Statement. Black Sea-area weather remains mixed with world values soft. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front.

    On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.51 with resistance again the 20-day at 4.59, which we are right at overnight.

    General Comments

    The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 100 higher. The dollar index is 10 weaker. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude 0.40 higher. Livestock trade is lower with hogs limit down. Precious metals are mixed with gold 2.30 higher.

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