December corn fell lower, but stopped short of a new closing low after USDA showed another high crop rating late Monday. All three wheats fell back toward recent lows while November soybeans ended slightly lower with current crops doing well overall.
Midday: Corn scores new lows, with wheat sharply lower, while soybeans cling to light gains.
CORN
Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents lower at midday with the December contract scoring a fresh low with the milder second-week forecast and a lack of fresh bullish news weighing on the market. The U.S. looks to have a warm week to keep pushing the crop forward this week with more rain and seasonal temperatures the second week.
Ethanol margins remain strong, with summer driving demand set to draw stocks lower in the near-term but ethanol futures have slipped 1.5 cents this morning. Corn basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The USDA announced 113,000 metric tons of corn sold to Egypt, and 152,000 metric tons of sorghum canceled by Mexico.
Weekly crop conditions were 75% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, down 1 percentage point, with silking at 37% vs. 18% on average.
On the September chart we remain below the 10-day at $3.55 overnight, with the 20-day at $3.62 the next round up. Further support is in the $3.44 1/2 to the $3.46 3/4 area, which is the lower Bollinger Band and the low scored here around midday.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade failing to hold dime moves in either direction so far today. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. Brazil remains at a stout premium to U.S. origin, which is compounded by the ongoing logistics issues with Brazil with premiums around $1.60 right now.
Bean basis has remained steady to firmer with processors taking the lead. Trade will be watching for more sales on the daily wire with this advantage with nothing hitting the wire today. Weather should continue to push growth along in the near term.
Weekly crop progress had 71% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, down 1 percentage point on poor to very poor, with 47% blooming vs. 27% on average, and 11% setting pods vs. 4% on average.
On the August chart the 10-day at $8.60 is again the first level of resistance with further support the lower Bollinger Band at 8.22 with the next level resistance the 20-day at 8.86.
WHEAT
Wheat trade 8 to 19 cents lower overnight with broad selling of the winter wheat contracts this morning with focus swing back to supplies along with spillover pressure from row crops. Harvest progress should continue to push along with the homestretch ongoing for the Plains.
Spring wheat should see good progress in Canada with better rains starting to show up over the Prairie Provinces. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas with early harvest yields down solidly from last year along with continued concerns for the rest of Europe.
HRW basis has remains solid through harvest with the better protein.
Winter wheat is 63% harvested, vs. 61% on average, and spring wheat is 80% good to excellent, and 7% poor to very poor with 81% headed vs. 69% on average.
On the September chart, Kansas City is below the 20-day at $5.05, with the 10-day at $4.89 below that with the 50-day at $5.37 the next round higher.
