DTN Grain Midday: Trade Turns Broadly Lower

    ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    Trade is broadly lower at midday.


    Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade giving back Friday’s gains with the second-week forecast turning more mild while trade issues hang over the market. The U.S. looks to have a warm week to keep pushing the crop with forecast disagreement for the second week with pollination likely to remain well ahead of normal, and rain staying north.

    Ethanol margins remain strong, with futures edging higher even with the fresh EPA uncertainty and summer driving demand still stout. Corn basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board.

    Weekly export inspections remained strong at 1.446 million metric tons even with the holiday. Weekly crop progress is expected to show the crop well ahead of the average development pace, and down slightly on ratings.

    On the September chart we are back below the 10-day at $3.56 overnight, with the 20-day at $3.65 the next round up. Further support is in the $3.44 1/2 to the $3.46 3/4 area which is the lower Bollinger Band and the contract low printed last week.


    Soybean trade is 18 to 21 cents lower at midday with trade pulling back from the sharply higher trade on Friday, but holding about half of the gains so far with more to digest on the trade front. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 lower and oil is flat to 10 points lower.

    Brazil remains at a stout premium to U.S. origin, which is compounded by the ongoing logistics issues with Brazil making noises about importing U.S. beans, which will be watched for closely. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer with processors taking the lead. Weather should continue to push growth along in the near term.

    Weekly export inspections were 654,854 metric which is respectable seasonally, with 132,000 metric tons of new crop sold to unknown. Weekly crop progress is expected to keep the development pace well ahead of normal, and conditions down slightly on the week.

    On the August chart support is the 10-day at $8.64 which we are back below at midday with further support the lower Bollinger band at 8.21 with resistance the 20-day at 8.92.


    Wheat trade is 3 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade backing off the strong finish from Friday with flat euro trade to start the week and row crop weakness. Harvest progress should continue to push along with the homestretch ongoing for the plains.

    Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada with better rains starting to show up over the prairie provinces. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas with early harvest yields down solidly from last year.

    HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness. Weekly export inspections were soft at 268,221 metric tons.

    On the September KC is right at the 20-day at $5.08, with the 10-day at $4.88 below that with the 50-day at $5.37 the next round higher.

    General Comments

    The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow up 250. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 2 points higher. Energies are mixed with crude down 0.10. Livestock trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $6.50.

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