December corn and September contracts of all three wheats took back part of Monday’s losses in a holiday-shortened session, marked by light volume. November soybeans ended down 5 1/4 cents with concerns about China’s new soybean tariff, set for July 6.
Midday: Wheat is seeing some double-digit gains at midday bouncing back from the Monday sell off.
CORN
Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher at midday; support is noted coming from the weekly conditions decline and buying due to oversold conditions going into the holiday break. Black Sea corn remains mostly dry into July and U.S. weather warms up the next few days with trade focused on temps into midmonth with back and forth action and forecasts with moisture around.
Ethanol board margins remain strong, which should boost corn usage into the second half of summer with ethanol futures rebounding slightly. Corn basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board.
The weekly crop progress showed conditions down 1 percentage point to 76% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, with 17% silking, 9% ahead of average. This remains record high type rating numbers.
On the September chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.59 which is now nearby resistance, and then the 20-day at $3.68 1/2. Support is in the $3.44 1/2 to the $3.46 3/4 area which is the lower Bollinger Band and the contract low printed yesterday respectively. Reminder we close at noon, then open back up at 8:30 Thursday morning in celebration of Independence Day.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower in quiet midday trade with the action still awaiting tariffs on Friday. Meal is flat to $1 lower, and mixed on oil. Brazil remains at a stout premium to U.S. origin. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer with processors taking the lead.
Widespread rains should boost near term growth with the heat to follow, and the main reproductive season still a ways out. There has been talk of further cancellations of outstanding sales to China.
Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 2 percentage points to 71% good to excellent, and 6% poor to very poor, with blooming at 27%, 14% ahead of average.
On the August chart support is at lower Bollinger Band at 8.22 and resistance the 10-day at $8.74.
WHEAT
Wheat trade is 10 to 14 cents higher at midday with trade trying to bounce back from the collapse on Monday; Kansas City wheat has been gaining on Chicago so far this morning. Harvest progress for Kansas should pick up this week with the warmer and drier weather for western Kansas, and some quality concerns from recent rain as well as hail losses.
Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas with early harvest yields down solidly from last year, along with yield concerns in continental Europe. HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness.
Weekly crop progress showed harvest at 51% complete for winter wheat vs. 49% on average, with 37% good to excellent, and 34% poor to very poor. Spring wheat was unchanged at 77% good to excellent, and 8% poor to very poor with heading at 58%, 10% ahead of average.
On the September chart Kansas City is back below the 10-day at $4.88 and $4.70 1/4 becoming support as the fresh low.
