DTN Grain Close: Trade Concerns Behind Another Risk-Off Day for Investors

    ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    Nearly all commodities and major stock markets were lower Monday as investors showed disapproval again over rising trade tensions. Grains in particular were sharply lower with added pressure from more rain in this week’s forecast and November soybeans settled down 20 3/4 cents on the day.


    Midday: Wheat and soybeans are the downside leaders in weaker trade across the board.


    Corn trade is 4 to 6 cents lower overnight with early gains fading with trade concerns dominating the markets at midday. Harvest should continue to expand in the double-crop areas of Brazil with open weather continuing, while Black Sea-area corn remains mostly dry into July.

    U.S. weather looks to remain wet in the near term, with heat expected to show up into midweek with rain possibilities mixed. Ethanol blending margins remain exceptionally strong with unleaded trading at a 60 cent premium to ethanol and weaker corn values boosting producers margins, with ethanol futures off 1% this morning.

    Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. The weekly export inspections were strong at 1.511 million metric tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady conditions and progress slightly ahead of the normal pace.

    On the July chart we remain below the 10-day, at $3.61 which is now nearby resistance and then the 200-day at $3.81. Nearby support is the $3.43 lower Bollinger Band then the $3.38 3/4 spike low from Tuesday.


    Soybean trade is 16 to 20 cents lower with trade worries taking away much of the gains to close last week overnight. Meal is $5.50 to $6.50 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points lower. Trade concerns will continue to fuel volatility with talk of fresh restrictions on US/Chinese investment.

    Bean basis has remained steady to firmer, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow with Brazilian values remaining strong on the anticipation of future business. The USDA did announced 186,000 metric tons of old crop sold to unknown.

    Widespread rains should boost near term growth with the heat to follow, and the main reproductive season still a ways out. Weekly export inspections were ok at 514,214.

    Crop progress is expected to show steady conditions, with development still solidly ahead of normal. On the July chart support is at lower Bollinger Band at 8.49, and resistance the 10-day at $9.07.


    Wheat trade is 5 to 15 cents lower with harvest pressure from the winter wheat returning coming out of the weekend along with the row crop weakness. Harvest progress for Kansas should pick up this week with the warmer and drier weather returning after weekend rains.

    Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada remaining drier. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. Russia remains dry in the winter wheat growing areas. HRW basis has remains solid ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement and board weakness.

    Weekly export inspections were OK at 352,836 metric tons. Crop progress is likely to show winter wheat near half done with improved conditions, and pace ahead of normal. Spring wheat should show steady conditions and development almost back to normal.

    On the July KC is back below all the major moving averages with the 200-day at $4.96 the closest to the market, and $4.69 becoming support as the fresh low.

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