DTN Grain Midday: New Market Lows

    ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    Corn and soybeans score new lows this morning with wheat holding to close to flat.


    Corn trade is 7 to 9 cents lower at midday after a wet weekend for many and continued political concerns ahead of the WASDE report tomorrow. Forecasts remain in flux with heat and rain featuring in most. The second crop areas of Brazil are getting closer to the end of the growing season with continued nearby dry weather with production estimates edging lower again with harvest set to expand.

    Ethanol futures have edged lower with the move lower in the energy complex but summer driving season should keep them mostly stable. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board.

    Weekly export inspections remain solid at 1.408 million metric tons. The weekly crop condition reports are expected to be mostly steady, with progress remaining slightly ahead of normal.

    On the WASDE report, trade is looking for 2.166 billion bushels of old crop carryout, and 1.66 billion bushels of new crop, World stocks are expected to be 193.39 million metric tons of old crop, and 157.56 of new crop.

    On the July chart we remain below the 200-day, at $3.82 which is now nearby resistance and then the 100-day at $3.87. Nearby support is the $3.69 fresh four-month low scored this morning.


    Soybean trade is 10 to 13 cents lower with trade scoring new lows with weekend rains and broad commodity pressure. Meal is $6 to $7 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points higher. Crush margins have narrowed but remain positive with the weaker beans, with meal drifting back to the $350 level. Bean basis has remained steady, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow.

    Brazil continues to move bushels as they move post-harvest. The weekly export inspections remained improved at 644,327 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should have steady conditions and progress remaining well ahead of normal.

    On the WASDE report, trade is looking for domestic old crop carryout at 522 million bushels of old crop, and 417 million of new, with world stocks at 91.35 million metric tons of new, and 86.74 of new.

    On the July chart, trade is back below all the major moving averages with the 20-day at 10.12 the first level of resistance with support at the new low of $9.56.


    Wheat trade is 1 to 6 cents lower with early gains eroding with the row crop slide and harvest pressure. Warmer weather should allow early harvest to progress quickly with the lagging maturity catching up with the continued warm weather, which tends to limit yields but early protein numbers remain average to strong. Harvest pressure should build further this week.

    Spring wheat should see better progress with warmer weather helping to catch up emergence along with more rain. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. The Black Sea remains on the dry side near term, with Russian spring wheat weather remaining mixed.

    HRW basis has improved ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement. Weekly export inspections were in line with expectations at 369,969 metric tons. On the report, domestic carryout is expected to be 1.079 billion bushels of old crop, and 958 million of new. World stocks are expected to be 270 million metric tons of old, and 263 million of new.

    On the July Kansas City, we are just below the 10-day and highest major moving average at $5.39 before breaking again overnight; next resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $5.65. Support is the $5.35 20-day moving average which we are testing at midday.

    General Comments

    The U.S. stock market indices are narrowly mixed in quiet trade. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 9 points lower. Energies are mixed with crude up 0.30 cents. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $3.50.

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