July row crops put an end to two weeks of sharp losses with a mixed close on Friday that saw corn gain a cent and a half, and soybeans fall a nickel to its lowest close in nine months. All three wheats ended lower Friday and for the week.
Midday: Wheat and soybeans are downside leaders at midday.
CORN
Corn trade is mixed at midday with trade trying to firm off the overnight lows adding some weather premium potential ahead of the weekend. Forecasts have drifted wetter again for the bulk of the belt with growing focus on early runs for pollination, but above normal heat is also around.
The second crop areas of Brazil are getting closer to the end of the growing season with continued nearby dry weather with production estimates edging lower again.
Ethanol futures have edged lower with blender margins firming along with cheaper corn for producers which has limited upside in corn. Basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board.
On the July chart we remain below the 200-day, at $3.82 which is now nearby resistance and we are just below overnight then the 100-day at $3.87. Nearby support is the $3.73 1/2 fresh four-month low scored this morning.
SOYBEANS
Soybean trade is 4 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade trying to come back from the fresh lows scored overnight. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil is 20 to 30 points lower.
Crush margins have narrowed but remain positive with the weaker beans, with meal drifting back below the $360 level. Bean basis has remained steady, with trade likely to remain quiet in the near term as old crop exports remain slow. Brazil continues to move bushels as they move post-harvest.
On the July chart, trade is back below all the major moving averages with the 20-day at 10.17 the first level of resistance with support at the morning low of $9.62.
WHEAT
Wheat trade failed to hold gains in two-sided trade this morning to be 5 to 10 cents lower at midday. Warmer weather should allow early harvest to progress quickly with the lagging maturity catching up with the continued warm weather, which tends to limit yields but early protein numbers remain average to strong. Some hedge pressure is likely going into the weekend.
Spring wheat should see better progress with warmer weather helping to catch up emergence. Australia should see some improvement but overall remains mixed. The Black Sea remains on the dry side near term, with Siberia trending cooler and wetter again. HRW basis has improved ahead of the anticipated harvest protein improvement.
On the July Kansas City, we moved above the 10-day and highest major moving average at $5.42 before breaking again overnight; next resistance is the upper Bollinger Band at $5.64. Support is the $5.35 20-day moving average.
