DTN Grain Close: Soybeans Get a Lift from Optimistic USDA Estimates

    Soybean seedling in corn residue. Photo: Ohio State University

    July soybeans closed up 5 1/2 cents Thursday after USDA released lower-than-expected U.S. ending stocks estimates for both, old-crop and new-crop seasons. July corn ended down 3/4 cents and winter wheat contracts were lower, looking at another year of heavy wheat production.


    Midday: Trade is mixed in quiet pre-report action.


    Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower in quiet pre-report trade. Rains will slow planting through the middle of the belt in spots later this week, but the warmer temps should boost progress of the large amount of corn planted up until then along with the quick pace in front of the rain. The second-crop areas of Brazil should catch some showers to mitigate some stress but the crop size should trend lower.

    Ethanol margins have improved with the firmer energy complex this week, but ethanol futures have failed to hold gains. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 695,600 metric tons.

    We will see the USDA monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (“WASDE”) at 11 am. The average trade guess for the old crop, 17-18, carryout is expected to come in at 2.178 billion bushels, and new crop at 1.628 billion. The new crop range is 1.49 to 1.91 billion, so the trade will be ready to react to the number.

    On the July chart we are above the 20-day at $3.97 which remains support, with resistance the fresh high at $4.08 1/4 scored last week.


    Soybean trade is flat to 3 cents higher with trade chopping around the lower end of the range ahead of the report. Meal is $1 to $2 higher and oil is flat to 10 points lower. The recent pattern in South America should remain intact near term with the Real and Peso remaining near record lows to boost export competiveness.

    Weekly exports were mixed at 354,300 metric tons of old crop, 278,300 metric tons of new crop, 90,900 of meal, and 45,400 of oil. On the WASDE report, old crop carryout is expected to be 541 million bushels on old crop and 549 million on new.

    On the July chart, trade is just below the 200-day at $10.16 with the next level of support the psychological support at $10.00, while the 100-day at $10.27 is resistance.


    Wheat trade is mixed ahead of the report with trade chopping along with little fresh news. The dollar rally will likely continue to limit upside, with the index just below 93 on some mild weakness again this morning.

    Warmer weather should help to boost maturity with the crop still well behind normal, with further stress likely if not combined with rain, especially for the western edge of the plains, with shower potential focused on the more northern winter wheat growing areas. Spring wheat growing areas look more open as they catch up further especially with the warmer temps.

    The Black Sea area will continue to dominate export trade with spring weather not triggering any major excitement thus far with warm dry start, but a wetter nearby forecast. Black Sea values are moving back towards $201 a ton.

    Weekly export sales were disappointing at 35,200 metric of old crop, and 48,200 of new crop. On the report, old crop carryout is expected to be at 1.065 billion bushels of old crop, and 930 million of new.

    On the July KC contract support is the 20-day at $5.27 support, with resistance the $5.43 area of the 10-day moving average.

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