WASDE Cotton: Larger Domestic Production, Exports, Ending Stocks

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    The 2017/18 U.S. cotton estimates include larger production, exports, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 1.2 million bales, with notable increases in the Southwest and Delta. Both harvested and planted area are raised, with abandonment slightly higher this month.

    Beginning stocks are revised 50,000 bales lower based on indicated stocks as of July 31, 2017, exports are raised 700,000 bales, while domestic use is unchanged. Ending stocks are forecast 200,000 bales higher than the month before, at 6.0 million, or 33 percent of total use. The forecast range for the marketing year average farm price is reduced 1 cent on each end, giving a range of 54 to 66 cents per pound.

    With slightly lower 2017/18 world beginning stocks and slightly higher consumption only partially offsetting a 3.4-million-bale increase in production, world ending stocks are raised 2.4 million bales this month. Beginning stocks are reduced for India and Australia, offsetting an increase for Brazil.

    Production is raised for several countries, led by the United States and India. Larger production is also forecast this month for Brazil, Australia, Mexico, and Turkey. World trade is revised upwards by 600,000 bales.

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    World ending stocks are projected at 92.5 million bales, 3.0 million above their 2016/17 level, but unchanged from a year earlier as a share of consumption.

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