Oddly enough, trading volume was reasonably moderate on Monday, but difficult to detect as grain prices refused to stray from Friday’s closes in front of Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report. July Minneapolis wheat was one exception, closing up over a nickel at its highest price in 11 months.
Midday: Nearby beans are lower while corn and wheat are higher in slow midday trade.
Corn trade has been quiet with only a 3-cent trading range; the midday market is a penny higher. Some weather viewpoints have changed with heat expected, but the market action illustrates some wet areas will benefit and need the heat, with only some dry areas not benefiting. The weekly export inspections were good at 1.177 million metric tons.
The dollar is 20 higher, stocks slightly lower and crude lower, so outside markets are neutral to negative to commodities at midday. USDA will release its updated balance sheets on Friday. That should have us set up for an active Friday coupled with forecasts in front of a summer weekend.
Illustrated by our action so far this session, sideways position-squaring may be the theme of the week until we get to Friday. The market should react tonight to any material changes in the weekly Crop Progress and Condition numbers.
On the July contract, resistance is at the 100-day and highest moving average at $3.74 1/4, then the $3.79 1/2 2-month high. Chart support is at the $3.70 20-day, then the five-month low of $3.60 3/4.
Soybean trade has July down a penny and November up 2 at midday; mixed trade has been the morning theme. Meal and oil are steady to lower at midday. The weekly export inspections were 277,298 metric tons, which the market viewed as negative. The USDA report on Friday is not expected to show much change for beans due to the early stage of the crop.
Most believe soybean acreage will go higher on the June Planting Intentions report at the end of the month. The potential for higher acreage should limit upside this month, but weather will still trump overall market direction.
Market bulls here argue negative items have been priced-in with the price drop to the low $9 range the past few weeks. July beans have support at $9.09 1/2, the fresh one-year low printed on Thursday. Resistance is at the $9.33 10-day.
Wheat trade is mixed at midday with KC down 4 cents, Chicago down a penny and Minneapolis up a nickel. The spring wheat crop concerns are a highlight in the market news with mixed thoughts on winter wheat. At midday, it appears some spreading is lifting spring and pressuring winter wheat contracts.
The weekly export inspection number was down from last week, but still an OK number at 522,881 metric tons. The weekly export sales number on Friday were good at 810,300 metric tons, which has market bulls hopeful moving forward. The dollar weakness has been good as well with new six-month highs on Friday.
On the July KC contract, support is the May low at $4.21, and the high last Wednesday at $4.40 is nearby resistance.