DTN Grain Midday: Trade Positive but Lacks Momentum

    ©Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

    Trade is mostly higher at midday but momentum is flat.


    Corn trade is 2 cents higher after trading 4 cents higher early on; so we have been staying in our weekly range, and it looks like we should end firmer today with some weather premium ahead of the holiday. The weekly sales report was negative this morning with only 412,000 tons of old crop and 139,700 tons of new.

    The dollar is adding support though with the index down 50 which has it at a new six-month low. Crude is lower and at a 3-week low. The weekly ethanol production report showed production up 1%, stocks up 0.35%, and gasoline demand 1.2% higher which was good demand news yesterday.

    Forecasts are not overly bias bullish or bearish illustrated by our range bound trade this week. At this juncture it looks like we should have slow trade this afternoon unless some emotion sparks and shorts want to exit.

    The 100-day and highest moving average is at the 100-day at $3.74 1/4. If we get above there, that could find some buy stops above the market to give us some excitement. Chart support is at the $3.70 20-day.


    Soybean trade is 6 higher at midday after trading round 12 higher mid-morning. Meal is $2.50 higher but soybean oil is 15 points lower. Lower crude and the lower soybean oil appear to be limiting upside in beans at midday. The weekly export sales numbers were good with soybean sales at 610,200 ton of old crop and 16,000 of new.

    Meal sales at 123,600 of old and 900 of new, and oil sales at 22,800 were good. The market weather ideas have been mixed with soybean pressure due to expected increases in acreage the past few weeks, but the downside momentum has stopped this week.

    Now concerns about the poor start and replant have the trade thinking hard about wanting to be short beans near $9 this early in the growing season. July beans have support at $9.09 1/2, the fresh 1-year low printed on Thursday.

    Resistance is at the $9.33 10-day, expect buy stops above the 10-day if we can get there. Expect additional sell stops / long liquidation below $9 if that happens.


    Wheat trade is mixed with Kansas City and Chicago trading a penny higher at midday, but Minneapolis is up 6 cents. Concern over wheat in the spring wheat areas is supporting Minneapolis with forecasts keeping rains light in the Dakotas, while winter wheat harvest should expand limiting upside in winter wheat with harvest pressure.

    The weekly export sales were good at 810,300 tons of 2016-17 sales. The old crop was a net reduction of 29,000 tons. The dollar weakness is viewed as supporting wheat here at midday. On the July Kansas City contract support the recent low at $4.21, and the high yesterday at $4.40 is nearby resistance.

    General Comments

    The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 70. The interest rate products are firm with new six-month highs. The dollar index is 50 points lower. Energies are higher with crude down .69. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are higher with gold up $9.

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