DTN Midday Grain: Mostly Lower on Your Lunch Hour

    Wheat Heads.

    General Comments

    The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 30. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 20 points lower. Energies are higher with crude up 0.60. Livestock trade has cattle sharply higher, and hogs mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold $7.90 lower.  


    Corn trade was 3 to 5 cents lower at midday with trade continuing the alternating higher and lower pattern after giving back the light early gains. Forecasts remain mixed with the extended forecast bringing the most potential moisture while dryness builds on the Northern Plains with a drier near-term pattern for much of the belt. Brazilian corn production estimates continue to rise. The weekly ethanol production report showed production up 1%, stocks up 0.35%, and gasoline demand 1.2% higher. On the July chart, trade is back below the $3.70 area, which is where the major moving averages are clustered with the upper Bollinger band just above the market at $3.76 3/4, which is first resistance, with the recent low at $3.60 1/4 as support. The USDA monthly report is due out next Friday, until then the market seems like momentum remains strongly sideways in our 3-month trading range.


    Soybean trade was mixed at midday with trade seeing quiet action with the market trying to find some footing. Spread trade has been weaker this morning after the July gained sharply vs. the November Wednesday. Meal is flat to $1 higher, and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. Palm oil prices have slid recently, adding pressure along with the lack of action on the biodiesel front by the U.S. government, which along with weaker crush margins have helped to fuel demand concerns, especially with South American exports picking up seasonally. July beans have new support at $9.10, which is the fresh low, then $9, with resistance at 10-day moving average of $9.36.


    Wheat trade was mixed with Minneapolis trade leading as the forecast keeps rains out of the Dakotas, while winter wheat harvest should expand adding harvest pressure. Early yields remain on the light side with protein improving with a big expansion likely this week, although rains could interfere more as we move north, along with further storm damage in northwest Kansas. Export business went to the Black Sea again for Mediterranean delivery. The dollar continues to drift at the lower end of the range in choppy action. On the July KC contract support the recent low at $4.21, and the 20-day resistance at $4.35 which we tested overnight.

    David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor. David Fiala can be reached at Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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